Another UFC Fight Night is scheduled Saturday between flyweights Deiveson Figueiredo and Joseph Benavidez from "Fight Island." SI MMA expert Casey Olson looks to keep bettors' hot streaks alive with a betting and DFS breakdown for the full card.
It’s safe to say that, so far, the Fight Island experiment has been a huge success.
UFC rolls right on into its third card in a week’s time, with UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2, Saturday night from Abu Dhabi.
In the card’s main event, No. 1 Deiveson Figueiredo squares off against No. 2 Joseph Benavidez in their immediate rematch for the vacant flyweight strap. The co-main features two top ranked middleweights, as Kelvin Gastelum faces Jack Hermansson in a very important fight for both fighters.
The card will air in its entirety on ESPN+, with the prelims (also available on ESPN) kicking off at 5pm ET, leading into the main card at 8:00pm ET. The event is scheduled for 12 fights in total, and lacks some star power names, but will no doubt feature some future stars looking to shine. Some great work by the matchmakers here, so expect some exciting scraps up and down the events lineup.
That said, let’s get into it and continue the trend over the last four cards which includes a 15-2 run for 88% on wagers.
W KATTAR/IGE - O2.5 ROUNDS -149
W JIMMY RIVERA -137 (VIA DEC +125 WORTH A LOOK)
W JIMMY RIVERA VIA DEC +125
L MOLLY MCCANN -110
W JACK SHORE VIA SUB +100
SCR GONZALEZ/BERGH U1.5 ROUNDS -105 (scratched)
W ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI -200
W PETR YAN -210
L JESSICA ANDRADE +180
W MUSLIM SALIKHOV -125
W RAULIAN PAIVA -165
W PROCHAZKA/OEZDEMIR UNDER 1.5 ROUNDS +125
W DUSTIN POIRIER -190
W MAURICE GREENE -227
W TANNER BOSER -110
SCR TAKASHI SATO -125 (scratched)
W CYNTHIA CALVILLO -110
W MARVIN VETTORI -200
W JORDAN ESPINOSA -175
UFC Fight Night: Figueiredo vs. Benavidez 2 Details
DATE: Saturday, July 18
BROADCAST: ESPN+
VENUE: UFC Fight Island
LOCATION: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
MATCHES: 12
UFC Fight Night Full Card Details
MAIN CARD:
FLYWEIGHT TITLE BOUT 125 LBS
#1 DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO 18-1 VS #2 JOSEPH BENAVIDEZ 28-6
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185 LBS
#6 JACK HERMANSSON 20-5 VS #7 KELVIN GASTELUM 16-5
LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155 LBS
MARC DIAKIESE 14-3 VS RAFAEL FIZIEV 7-1
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125 LBS
ARIANE LIPSKI 12-5 VS LUANA CAROLINA 6-1
FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125 LBS
#4 ALEXANDRE PANTOJA 22-4 VS #7 ASKAR ASKAROV 11-0-1
PRELIMS:
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205 LBS
ROMAN DOLIDZE 6-0 VS KHADIS IBRAGIMOV 8-2
CATCHWEIGHT BOUT 150 LBS
GRANT DAWSON 15-1 VS NAD NARIMANI 12-3
LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155 LBS
JOE DUFFY 16-4 VS JOEL ALVAREZ 16-2
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135 LBS
BRETT JOHNS 16-2 VS MONTEL JACKSON 9-1
FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125 LBS
MALCOM GORDON 12-3 VS AMIR ALBAZI 12-1
LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155 LBS
DAVI RAMOS 10-3 VS ARMAN TSARUKYAN 14-2
HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265 LBS
CARLOS FELIPE 8-0 VS SERGHEI SPIVAK 10-2
Figueiredo vs Benavidez 2
After Henry Cejudo rode off into the sunset and vacated the flyweight title, these two squared off for “nexties” back in February, and the result unfortunately left both leaving the night without the belt.
Figueiredo came in missing weight; with a victory he couldn’t leave with the belt and only Benavidez could be crowned with a win. After a clash of heads in the second round, Figueiredo scored a KO, and the UFC was left to run it back between the top two in the world. Now, who takes the rematch?
While Figueiredo comes in with a chip on his shoulder, looking to validate last February’s KO of Benavidez yet again, we are seeing a different side of Joe B. from an emotional standpoint.
Always the pro, Benavidez is coming in with no well wishes for his opponent. He can count maybe three in his career that he’s truly disliked now with Figueiredo. With these emotions we rarely see from the guy even before weigh-ins, coupled with the fact that this is his fourth and probably last crack at the title, the travel, testing protocols, it will be a lot before we even get to fight time.
Benavidez is coming into this event at 35 years of age, and he will be the oldest fighter on the entire card. A loss would make him the only fighter to go 0-4 in title fights in the UFC.
No pressure right? In this matchup, he will have the higher output volume no doubt about it. The problem I see though is he tends to get into chess matches with his opponents regardless of their skillset, and look to match them at what they are best at. This will be problematic against Figueiredo just as it was in their last match. Figueiredo's fighting style is typically lower output than his foe, but when he attacks, it's with power and the best accuracy amongst the division. (52.5% significant strikes landed per attempt). He’s earned 15 of his 18 wins by way of stoppage, and has no real holes in his skillset. We saw that in their first fight as he almost submitted Benavidez late in the first round, only to follow up with the KO early in the second.
Figueiredo is making the flight with only just over 4 pounds to drop in order to make the weight, which should be a breeze. With a full 25 minutes to work, I like the odds of another finish for the Brazilian.
PREDICTION: DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO VIA ITD +100
Other Wagers
ARIANE LIPSKI (12-5) VS LUANA CAROLINA (6-1)
I'm going to take a stab at the plus money on Carolina. She looked great in her UFC debut against “Zombie Girl” and had 251 total strike attempts, landing 126 and doubling the output cruising to a decision win as a big underdog.
She’s in the dog spot again here against Ariane Lipski, who will have the experience advantage, and will look to trade carrying on her kick name, “The Violence Queen.” Carolina has decent grappling, but will most likely look to press and engage on the feet. Lipski will trade, but has the much lower accuracy, and limited movement which results in her absorbing more than landing on average.
Carolina is coming in with the highest SLpM on the card at 6.53, mostly due to her small sample, but I see the trend continuing. She will continue to move forward, Lipski will miss, and Carolina will score.
PREDICTION: LUANA CAROLINA +110
BRETT JOHNS (16-2) VS MONTEL JACKSON (9-1)
I see this as a great matchup for Jackson. Height, reach, speed, all in favor of the prospect. Jackson will need to stay sharp and follow his corner’s gameplan, as Johns can be sneaky with the takedowns. We saw this in Johns’ last match against Tony Gravely, where Gravely got sucked in and attempted to grapple a little too much, which resulted in Johns locking in the submission choke. Jackson should look to keep it standing and pick him a part on the feet at a distance. His takedown defense will be key if he wants to win this one, along with an early start, looking to score and take at least the first two rounds on his way to a decision win.
PREDICTION: MONTELL JACKSON -200 (Take a look at via DEC -110)
DAVI RAMOS (10-3) VS ARMAN TSARUKYAN (14-2)
Stylistically, I just see this as a great spot for Tsarukyan. The future contender will look to grapple and score with heavy activity from the top position. He’s been known to wear on his opponents to the point where they give up submission opportunities. From the feet, he’s great at catching kicks, and don’t be surprised if you see multiple attempts at single legs down to the mat. Ramos will struggle to takedown Tsarukyan, and it will probably be sixes on the feet, with a slight lean to the Armenian.
PREDICTION: ARMAN TSARUKYAN -200
CARLOS FELIPE (8-0) VS SERGHEI SPIVAK (10-2)
If you saw my tweet earlier this last week, you know where I’m at here. UFC debuting fighter, Felipe, hasn’t had an MMA fight in over 3 years. Not by choice. He was suspended for taking fat burners that had banned substances, so he had to sit on the sidelines for a bit. I believe he took a boxing bout back in 2018, but nothing since.
Although he is undefeated, I don’t see too much in the tool kit other than power in his hands. He’s pretty aggressive in striking and looks to get into wars. Not too much footage out there on him, but when his opponent closes, it looks like some decent grappling will cause him some issues. Spivak should have enough grappling to cause some of this. A good sample and comparable skillset matchup was Spivak vs Tuivasa. Spivak landed six takedowns against the heavy Tua Tuivasa which eventually resulted in a submission win.
As long as Spivak can close and avoid the strikes, he should have the advantage on the mat and wear Felipe down. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Filipe talk in there to try and suck Spivak into keeping it standing. Don’t do it Serghei.
PREDICTION: SERGHEI SPIVAK -110
Quick Notes and Predictions on the Rest of the Card
DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO defeats JOSEPH BENAVIDEZ
JACK HERMANSSON defeats KELVIN GASTELUM
RAFAEL FIZIEV defeats MARC DIAKIESE
LUANA CAROLINA defeats ARIANE LIPSKI
ALEXANDRE PANTOJA defeats ASKAR ASKAROV
ROMAN DOLIDZE defeats KHADIS IBRAGIMOV
GRANT DAWSON defeats NAD NARIMANI
JOE DUFFY defeats JOEL ALVAREZ
MONTEL JACKSON defeats BRETT JOHNS
MALCOM GORDON defeats AMIR ALBAZI
ARMAN TSARUKYAN defeats DAVI RAMOS
SERGHEI SPIVAK defeats CARLOS FELIPE
UFC FIGHT NIGHT BET SUMMARY:
DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO VIA ITD +100
LUANA CAROLINA +110
MONTELL JACKSON -200 (Take a look at via DEC -110)
ARMAN TSARUKYAN -200
SERGHEI SPIVAK -110
Last event prediction recap: 8-3
Last event wagers recap: 4-1
Fight card predictions overall: 212-112-6 (65%)
Targeted matchups (wagers): 80-31-2 (72%) Avg. odds -108
UFC Fight Night DFS Plays & Strategies
- Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
- Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most of the weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
- Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
- Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats, consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
- Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high percentage of submission victories matched with Fighter B, with a high percentage of submission losses.
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC Fight Night. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual match-ups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
Some recommendations
- Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
- Take a look at the main event with the 5 rounds to work. I like Figueiredo.
- Top Tier fighters to build around include Dolidze and Dawson
- Mid Tier fighter considerations are Tsarukyan and Spivac
- Live Dogs are Hermansson, Fiziev, Carolina