A lightweight bout between Paul Felder vs. Rafael dos Anjos headlines this UFC Fight Night main card.
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UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos
#UFCVegas14 MMA Betting Preview
After four years away from the division he once owned, Rafael dos Anjos heads back to 155 LBS this weekend to face Paul Felder, in a fight that has all the makings of an outstanding main event that came together less than a week ago. Originally slated to take on Islam Makhachev, who had to withdraw due to injury, dos Anjos now will take on the heavy hitter Paul Felder, who accepted the fight on just five days' notice. After locking in this new opponent in Felder, dos Anjos will look to make another run towards the title he once wore, while Felder could be making a run of his own with the biggest win of his career, if successful on Saturday night.
Though no massive names featured on the card, matchmakers have us set up with some very competitive matchups, with a slate scheduled for 12 bouts, where oddsmakers have tighter, more competitive odds in comparison to the last several weeks. The entire event will be live on ESPN+ with the prelims kicking off at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the main card at 7 p.m. ET.
UFC Fight Night Details
- DATE: SATURDAY 11/14/2020
- BROADCAST: ESPN+
- VENUE: UFC APEX
- LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
- # of MATCHES: 12
UFC PREDICTION BET SUMMARY
- Fight card predictions overall: 346-174-10 (67%)
- Last week's predictions: 7-3
- Targeted matchups (wagers): 181-71-5 (72%)
- Last week's targeted matchups: 7-2
MAIN CARD
LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155 LBS
#7 PAUL FELDER 17-5 VS #12 RAFAEL DOS ANJOS 29-13
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170 LBS
ABDUL RAZAK ALHASSAN 10-2 VS KHAOS WILLIAMS 10-1
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185 LBS
JULIAN MARQUEZ 7-2 VS SAPARBEG SAFAROV 9-3
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115 LBS
KAY HANSEN 7-3 VS CORY MCKENNA 5-1
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185 LBS
ERYK ANDERS 13-5 VS ANTONIO ARROYO 9-3
PRELIMS
CATCHWEIGHT BOUT 195 LBS
BRENDAN ALLEN 15-3 VS SEAN STRICKLAND 21-3
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115 LBS
ASHLEY YODER 7-6 VS MIRANDA GRANGER 7-1
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170 LBS
ALEX MORONO 17-6 VS RHYS MCKEE 10-3-1
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135 LBS
JOSE QUINONEZ 8-4 VS LOUIS SMOLKA 16-7
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115 LBS
RANDA MARKOS 10-9-1 VS KANAKO MURATA 11-1
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135 LBS
GERALDO DE FREITAS 12-5 VS TONY GRAVELY 19-6
HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265 LBS
DON’TALE MAYES 7-4 VS ROQUE MARTINEZ 15-6-2
MAIN EVENT PREDICTION
#7 PAUL FELDER 17-5 VS #12 RAFAEL DOS ANJOS 29-13
So Paul Felder steps in to save the headliner this week after Islam Makhachev was forced to withdraw due to injury. This actually could make for a great scrap by night's end. As he vocally contemplated retirement after his last fight, a decision loss against Dan Hooker back in February, Felder makes a gangster move and steps up to fight RDA, the former 155 champ, coming back down from 170. Felder is still in the mix, currently ranked No. 7 in the division. He is tough as nails, and no matter the opponent, Felder seems to be always in the fight. Looking at his last seven fights, he’s 5-2, with both of his losses coming by way of a split decision, and one of those he fought with a broken arm. This go-round, he's in tough, as RDA makes his return to 155, a fighter who has only three losses at this weight dating back to 2012, and all of those against former champs in the likes of Ferguson, Alvarez, and Khabib. RDA, a fourth-degree BJJ black belt, is a very skilled southpaw striker and couples his standup with excellent grappling ability, which undoubtedly will come into play in this fight. You have to consider who he’s been training for over the last several months in Makhachev. Makhachev is a beast on the feet and is known to take down his opponents at will, averaging almost 3.5 every 15 minutes.
On the other hand, Felder avoids the mat at all costs, as he favors his power strikes consisting of a mix of damaging elbows, combos up and down, and the occasional spinning stuff. Felder hasn’t landed a takedown in his last nine fights, and I'd be surprised if he wants to take this BJJ wizard down as well. Now RDA hasn’t fared well as of late up at 170 LBS. He’s on a 1-4 run, though matched up against some much bigger foes with grappling bases like no other. We are talking Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman, Michael Chiesa. These guys land takedowns in pretty much every fight. Felder isn’t this style of opponent. Before these stylistic type matchups at 170, RDA looked amazing, ripping off three straight wins against stand up strikers (similar to Felder) Robbie Lawler, Neil Magny, and Tarec Saffiedine.
We have two mindsets coming into this one. One guy is 100% dedicated and putting in the grind to make one more run at the belt he once held at all costs. The other is 50/50 on ever fighting again. That said, though, you better believe we will get the best effort out of both guys. As they meet up in the middle, I expect a kickboxing war out of the shoots, both looking to outwork the other, with RDA probably busier out of the shoots. Both will mix in the leg kicks, and neither will be walking normal, nor at all the next morning. Felder will look to land the kicks to the body with RDA's southpaw stance, eventually bringing the arms down and opening up the top for those elbows. Felder could open RDA up with the built-up scar tissue after all the past wars, which will favor Felder in the eyes of the judges, though at any point and whenever he needs, RDA will take Felder down and control from the top. The takedowns which will eventually occur will factor into the score at the end of the night. Felder has proven he can get the fight back up to the feet, as we saw against Charles Oliveira, though I see RDA going back to the well when he needs to, as he did against Showtime Pettis, where he landed nine takedowns by night’s end. Felder and Pettis have very comparable takedown defense, and RDA will have to take the fight in this direction to get the win.
Since learning about this fight, I’ve been diving in to dissect how this chess match will go. Felder has the power and ability to change the direction of this fight with one shot. His game plan will be to sit in the phonebooth and swing, which the small cage will help. RDA is much more well-rounded, and laser-focused with a full camp to boot. It really could be the flip of the coin here in the main.
So who wins?
I had a neighbor ask me who was fighting this weekend, and I explained it as follows. We have a former lightweight champion who also challenged up a division for the welterweight belt, taking on a guy who was scheduled to commentate the fight ringside, that is taking the fight on five day’s notice, with no training camp, who just months ago was waffling on retirement.
MAIN CARD WAGERS
LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155 LBS: #7 PAUL FELDER 17-5 VS #12 RAFAEL DOS ANJOS 29-13
- RDA looks to bounce back after two straight losses and dropping four of the last five.
- Felder is stepping up on just five days' notice.
- Both fighters avg fight time is over 2.5 rounds.
- Felder has gone to a decision in his last four fights and RDA five of the last six.
- BET: Click here to continue
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170 LBS: ABDUL RAZAK ALHASSAN 10-2 VS KHAOS WILLIAMS 10-1
- Neither fighter has ever been finished.
- All 10 of Alhassan's wins come by way of TKO/KO.
- Williams won his debut in just 27 seconds by way of KO over Alex Morono.
- Williams is 9-0 against the orthodox stance.
- A big step up in competition for Williams. Eight of his previous 11 opponents have losing records.
- BET: Click here to continue
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185 LBS: JULIAN MARQUEZ 7-2 VS SAPARBEG SAFAROV 9-3
- Marquez is back after a two-year layoff and very motivated after repairing a torn latissimus dorsi.
- Marquez has never been finished, while Safarov has been finished in three of his last four fights.
- Safarov is just 1-3 in the UFC and 0-2 fighting in the USA.
- BET: Click here to continue
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115 LBS: KAY HANSEN 7-3 VS CORY MCKENNA 5-1
- At just 21 years of age, McKenna is making her UFC debut after winning her fight via U-DEC on the DWCS in August.
- Also 21, Hansen is back after winning her UFC debut in June over Jinh Yu Frey, a former Invicta FC atomweight champion.
- Hansen has finishes in 86% of her wins, while McKenna has never been finished.
- Hansen will have a 4.5-inch reach advantage.
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185 LBS: ERYK ANDERS 13-5 VS ANTONIO ARROYO 9-3
- Anders is 5-5 in the UFC and just 2-4 in his last six fights.
- Anders is durable and has gone to a decision in five of his last six fights at middleweight.
- Win or lose, nine of Arroyo's 12 fights have ended in Round 1.
- Arroyo has a 44% takedown defense and has been taken down five times in his last two fights. Anders hasn’t gone for a takedown in his last five fights.
- Arroyo has 69% striking accuracy, and Anders absorbs 4.18 strikes per minute while only landing 3.02.
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PRELIMS WAGERS
CATCHWEIGHT BOUT 195 LBS: BRENDAN ALLEN 15-3 VS SEAN STRICKLAND 21-3
- Strickland with a quick turnaround, having just fought two weeks ago.
- Allen is riding a seven-fight winning streak and has six victories via RNC.
- Strickland has never been submitted.
- Allen has yet to lose in the UFC, going 3-0 against some tough opponents (Daukaus, Breese, Holland)
- BET: Click here to continue
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115 LBS: ASHLEY YODER 7-6 VS MIRANDA GRANGER 7-1
- Yoder is just 2-5 in the UFC, with all seven of those fights going to a decision.
- Granger is looking to rebound after suffering the first defeat of her career, a submission loss to Amanda Lemos, last December.
- Six of Granger's eight total fights have ended via submission, while five of Yoder's seven wins have come in the same fashion.
- Granger has the advantage in all striking statistics.
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170 LBS: ALEX MORONO 17-6 VS RHYS MCKEE 10-3-1
- McKee has only gone to a decision twice in 14 fights.
- McKee will have a 6-inch reach advantage.
- This will be McKee’s first fight in the US.
- Morono has six submission victories, and all have come in the 1st round.
- BET: Click here to continue
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135 LBS: JOSE QUINONEZ 8-4 VS LOUIS SMOLKA 16-7
- Smolka has only been finished three times, all by Round 1 submission.
- Quinonez has just one submission win, and it occurred five years ago.
- Quinonez’s last four wins have been via decision. He’s 1-2 in his last three fights and was finished by both Sean O'Malley (RD1KO) and Nathaniel Wood (RD2SUB).
- Win or lose, Smolka’s last seven fights have all ended inside the distance.
- No fighter Quinonez has beat in the UFC is still with the org.
- BET: Click here to continue
WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHT BOUT 115 LBS: RANDA MARKOS 10-9-1 VS KANAKO MURATA 11-1
- Markos stepped up on just nine days' notice after Livinha Souza withdrew.
- Murata is making her UFC debut and riding a seven-fight win streak.
- Markos is 2-0 against southpaws.
- Markos absorbs more strikes on average than she lands.
- Markos' last three losses have been against high-level grapplers.
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135 LBS: GERALDO DE FREITAS 12-5 VS TONY GRAVELY 19-6
- De Freitas is back after a 15 month layoff.
- Gravely has lost via sub in five of his six defeats.
- After 17 fights, De Freitas has yet to be finished.
- This will be De Freitas’ first fight in the US.
- BET:
HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265 LBS: DON’TALE MAYES 7-4 VS ROQUE MARTINEZ 15-6-2
- Both fighters are looking for their first UFC victory.
- Martinez has won in the 1st round in 4 of his last five victories.
- Mayes will have a 9-inch reach advantage.
- In 32 combined fights, only 25% have made the final bell.
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UFC Fight Night DFS Plays & Strategies
- Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
- Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
- Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
- Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats; consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
- Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high % of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high % of submission losses.
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC FIGHT NIGHT. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
UFC Fight Night DFS Recommendations
- Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
- Fights projected to NOT go to a decision
- Alhassan/Williams -610
- Marquez/Safarov -320
- Mayes/Martinez -150
- Morono/McKee -135
Good luck everyone! I hope to see some of you cashin' after Saturday night! Thanks for all the amazing comments, and I appreciate the follows. If you haven’t done so already, jump on Twitter and find me at @Y2CASEY. Stay cashin’.