Upset Picks, Last-Minute Advice and Other Fearless March Madness Predictions

One day before the men’s Big Dance begins, our experts share their takes on this year’s popular underdogs.

Time is running out to fill out your men’s NCAA tournament bracket, but fear not—we’re here to help you make those final decisions. We know you may be still agonizing over which first-round upsets to pick or which underdogs to send to the second weekend, so this roundtable specifically addresses the lower seeds we’re putting our trust in—and staying away from—and why. Plus, we make our overall bold predictions for the bracket. Read on for our insight and advice, and follow it if you wish. (For our full round-by-round predictions, check out our expert brackets.)

First-round upset I feel good about

Pat Forde: No. 13 South Dakota State over No. 4 Providence. The Jackrabbits have won 21 straight—they can’t even remember what it feels like to lose and will play with an expectation of winning. The Friars, meanwhile, have a nice record and terrible metrics—and I’m siding with the metrics. Providence has had a great run, but the well of good fortune ran dry in New York last week and hasn’t been replenished yet.

Kevin Sweeney: No. 12 UAB over No. 5 Houston. This is my best best among the always-popular 12-over-5 upsets this year. Houston is 1–4 against top-50 KenPom foes. UAB is in the top 50 in KenPom. The Blazers have the best guard on the floor in this game in Jordan “Jelly” Walker and enough athleticism to not be overwhelmed by the Cougars’ physicality.

Jason Jordan: No. 11 Iowa State over No. 6 LSU. The Tigers are ripe for the picking after Will Wade got canned this past weekend. Yes, the Cyclones went 7–11 in the Big 12, but they were competitive in most games, and it just happens to be the most grueling conference in college basketball. For that reason, they probably should’ve been seeded higher, but I digress. Izaiah Brockington is a matchup problem in the backcourt and he’s a senior, which means everything in March.

Jeremy Woo: South Dakota State over Providence. I generally don’t have much confidence in Providence, who is trending in a weird direction going into the tourney and is pulling a Jackrabbits team that shoots the lights out. The Friars are going to have to solve their shooting woes from the Big East tourney, where they were just demolished by Creighton. This is the easiest No. 4 vs. 13 upset to take.

Molly Geary: Give me the Jackrabbits. Since Feb. 1, T-Rank’s power rating has Providence as the No. 62 team nationally and South Dakota State as the No. 64 team. KenPom has this as a two-point Friars win, and the betting line at SI Sportsbook is Providence -2.5. Yes, the Friars could prevail, but you rarely see No. 4 vs. 13 matchups quite this close on paper, and it’s too tempting an opportunity to pass up.

First-round upset that goes out on a limb

Forde: No. 14 Colgate over No. 3 Wisconsin. The Red Raiders have won 19 of their last 20 and have an experienced nucleus that played in the tournament last year, giving Arkansas some anxiety by tying the game with less than nine minutes left. Almost everyone is back from that team, wiser and hungrier, and facing an opponent with less of an athletic advantage. Wisconsin is good but vulnerable to some offensive lapses that could leave the Badgers vulnerable.

Sweeney: Colgate over Wisconsin. Colgate takes a ton of threes (more than 42% of the Raiders’ shots are from deep) and makes a ton of threes (40.1%, second in the country). In a grind-it-out game like Wisconsin wants to play, it wouldn’t take a ton for this one to be very interesting late.

Jordan: South Dakota State over Providence. I’m basing this solely on the Jackrabbits’ ability to knock down threes and that’s why I’m a bit gun shy. That said, it’s March, so let’s go! Baylor Scheierman, the Summit League Player of the Year, is knocking down three-pointers at a 47.3% clip. To be fair, the Friars defend the three-point line reasonably well, but the Jackrabbits are cut from the old “it’s not what you make, it’s what you take” cloth, hoisting 19 threes a game and making seven. If they start to warm up early, watch out.

Woo: I know all the metrics really love Houston, a balanced team that pounds the glass and generally beats up on lesser competition. I kind of like UAB to play this close, with a coach in Andy Kennedy who’s been in tourney situations plenty and a team driven by upperclassmen that shoots it well and should battle. I don’t know that it’s likely, but it’s the only No. 5 vs. 12 upset I like this year.

Geary: No. 11 Rutgers/Notre Dame over No. 6 Alabama. I consider this “on a limb” because the Tide are receiving the highest share of the public’s picks (71%) of any No. 6 seed on ESPN’s Tournament Challenge, which frankly feels too large. Bama has been wildly inconsistent this season, and its run-and-gun offense could get easily mucked up by a gritty Scarlet Knights team. And if it gets the Irish, Mike Brey’s team has the shooting to send the Tide packing.

Don’t fall for this popular upset pick

Forde: I can understand the urge to pick Iowa State over an LSU team that just fired its coach but take a closer look at the Cyclones. And tell me how they’re going to score against a forbidding defense.

Sweeney: South Dakota State over Providence. Everyone seems poised to hammer the Jackrabbits in this one, but don't forget that SDSU gave up 104 points to Alabama and 87 points to Washington. Providence will be able to score at will in this game and avoid the upset.

Jordan: No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Arkansas. Don’t take the bait. Yes, Vermont molly-whopped the competition in the America East this season, culminating in an 82–43 drubbing of UMBC in the league championship game. But, respectfully, that’s the America East. The Catamounts’ five-out offense won’t be as productive against a battle-tested Razorbacks squad and its trio of tough-nosed guards (JD Notae, Stanley Umude, Au’Diese Toney). Arkansas checks in at No. 16 in defensive efficiency on KenPom. No Cinderella run here.

Woo: Yes, Colorado State will have to defend Hunter Dickinson creatively, but I frankly just don’t think Michigan is all that good, relying on inconsistent freshmen Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate as the supporting cast. Plus, DeVante’ Jones is out with a concussion. Rams star David Roddy has been as steady as anyone this season, and Isaiah Stevens gives them reliable guard play. The seeding doesn’t reflect how close the game might be, but I think CSU finds a way.

Geary: Can I say No. 9 Creighton over No. 8 San Diego State? The Bluejays are getting nearly 56% of the public’s vote on Yahoo brackets—that’s high for a traditional coin-flip game, especially when the Aztecs are favored by 2.5 points, so there’s value here. Both these teams are far better on the defensive end than on offense, but SDSU has been the hotter team from three of late and will put a lot of pressure on Creighton’s turnover-prone backcourt.

Lower-seeded team with the best chance of advancing past the first weekend

Forde: No. 7 USC has just sort of floated along in low-key fashion, mostly beating teams it should beat and losing to teams it should lose to, but the Trojans have talent. More importantly, they’re looking at a potential second-round matchup with an Auburn team that has become extremely wobbly away from home. USC has the size and athletes to stay on the floor with the Tigers and wait for them to mess up.

Sweeney: No. 10 Loyola Chicago. The Ramblers have plenty of March Madness experience and got a great draw, facing off with a reeling Ohio State in the first round before a potential date with No. 2 seed Villanova in the round of 32. The Wildcats aren’t built to blow someone out, and I trust Lucas Williamson and Braden Norris to make big plays in March.

Jordan: No. 11 Virginia Tech. A day after they smacked North Carolina, the Hokies tactically dismantled Duke to win the ACC championship Saturday. Hokies guards Storm Murphy and Hunter Cattoor will give No. 6 Texas fits with their quickness and ability to knock down contested three-pointers, and Keve Aluma is a matchup problem extraordinaire.

Woo: Virginia Tech. I’m a little biased after spending last week at the ACC tournament (which VT, of course, won). What the Hokies are doing feels sustainable: They run great stuff, they have tough guards, they have size up front and they force opponents to really communicate defensively. They have a reasonable first-round draw in Texas and have the right type of system to give defensively challenged Purdue problems in the second round. I think Virginia Tech is actually underseeded after a bad start to the season, and after watching them handily beat Duke, I think the magic continues into the second weekend.

Geary: Echoing Virginia Tech. The Texas game should be close, and while I respect what Purdue has done this season, I have a lot of skepticism about the Boilermakers’ defense. The Hokies will need to continue their hot shooting (they’ve shot more than 40% from three in four of their last six games) and find a way to deal with Zach Edey if they meet Purdue, but this is plenty doable, even if not necessarily likely.

What’s your bold prediction about the bracket?

Forde: By the Elite Eight we could have zero coaches with national titles still competing: Mark Few of Gonzaga, Mark Adams of Texas Tech, Mick Cronin of UCLA, Matt Painter of Purdue, Tommy Lloyd of Arizona, Rick Barnes of Tennessee, Fran McCaffery of Iowa and Greg Gard of Wisconsin. (The toughest sell here is Kansas and Bill Self losing to Iowa, but it could happen.) If that happens, it would be a third straight tournament with a first-time coach winning, following Tony Bennett in 2019 and Scott Drew in ’21. And if any team other than UCLA, Arizona or Wisconsin were to win out of that group, it would be a first-time program title as well.

Sweeney: Iowa goes to the Final Four! I know it's a relatively popular pick right now, but the Hawkeyes were simply tremendous in the Big Ten tournament and are so hard to guard.

Jordan: Kansas will be the first No. 1 seed to fall. I know, I know, the Jayhawks are fresh off a Big 12 conference title and have won five in a row, but I can’t stop seeing No. 5 Iowa waiting for Bill Self in the Sweet 16. Why? Keegan Murray. The 6'8" forward is tailor-made for stardom this March, averaging 23.6 points and 8.6 rebounds this season while shooting 55% from the field. It’s a matchup for which the Jayhawks have no answer. In December, the Hawkeyes star told me his twin brother, Kris, a talented forward for Iowa, pretends to be Keegan when fans mistakenly ask him for pictures. Just imagine the attention Kris will be getting after they take down Kansas.

Woo: Some combination of Memphis/Boise State/Arkansas/UConn/Duke/Texas Tech is not an easy route for Gonzaga at all, and it’s not like the Bulldogs have been some infallible machine all season. Yes, Gonzaga is good, but good teams have been able to play them close for long stretches, and they don’t have much experience playing from behind as a group. That’s always something that concerns me, and “they have to win the title eventually” isn’t good enough logic, frankly.

Geary: I didn’t really predict anything particularly chaotic in my personal bracket, but I can’t shake the feeling that this tournament could be a truly wild one. Last year was full of twists itself, at least until it all ended with the exact matchup most of the season had forecasted. With the extra COVID-19 year, some teams are older than normal, and that includes mid-majors. And besides Gonzaga, the top handful of teams are noticeably weaker in KenPom efficiency margin than the top group in 2021 and the previous tournament in ’19. Things feel ripe to go up in flames, but good luck predicting exactly when and where.

More March Madness Coverage:

• Men’s Top Seeds At Risk of an Early Exit
• 1–68: Ranking the Men’s Tourney Field
• Ranking the 2022 Cinderella Candidates