Betting analysis for the USFL championship game between the favored Birmingham Stallions and the Philadelphia Stars.
After 11 weeks of exhilarating action, the 2022 USFL season concludes with an intriguing championship matchup between the Stars and Stallions.
These teams have taken different paths to the league’s title game.
Birmingham (10-1) opened the season with eight straight wins and only lost in Week 9, a 17-15 upset loss to the Gamblers as 12.5-point favorites. The Stallions earned their spot in the title game last week via 31-17 win over the Breakers as 4.5-point favorites.
Philadelphia (7-4) arrives in the championship game after an uneven regular season. The Stars opened the year losing three of its first five games before enjoying a four-game winning streak that helped the club capture one of the four playoff spots.
After losing to the Stars in both regular-season meetings, Philadelphia upset the Generals, 19-14, as 4.5-point underdogs in the semifinals last week.
USFL favorites have posted a 31-11 (73.8%) straight-up (SU) record combined with a modest 22-20 (52.4%) against the spread (ATS) mark. Meanwhile, in total wagering, backing the over holds an identical slim advantage (22-20; 52.4%).
The kicking game was a major issue as the eight clubs finished 104-for-151 (68.9%) combined in field goals in the regular season.
The four clubs converted 4-of-6 (66.7%) attempts last week in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, teams have only converted 12-of-30 (40%) two-point attempts. Only one squad (Stars, Week 2) successfully converted a three-point extra try following a touchdown. Overall, teams went just 1-for-5 (20%) on the long-distance attempt.
The semifinals featured just one unsuccessful two-point attempt by Philadelphia.
2022 USFL Championship Game
Sunday, July 3
Philadelphia Stars vs. Birmingham Stallions
Records: Stars (7-4 SU; 6-5 ATS)/Stallions (10-1 SU; 7-4 ATS)
Spread: Stallions -4.5
Moneyline: Stallions -200/Stars +155
Total: 45.5
Time/TV: 7:30 p.m. ET/Fox
*The USFL championship game will be played at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio*
Mandatory Credit: Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports
USFL Championship Game Betting Breakdown
The USFL championship game will mark the second meeting between these two clubs this season. Birmingham earned a 30-17 victory as six-point favorites in Week 5.
Birmingham will look to utilize the league’s second-best ground game (133.1 rushing yards per game) against a Stars defense that has surrendered the most rushing yards per game (147.1) this season.
The Stallions dominated Philadelphia on the ground in the first matchup (155 rushing yards to 62), which led to a massive edge in the possession battle (38:03 to 21:57). While the Stars led 17-14 at halftime, the Stallions used the rushing and possession edges to their advantage to outscore Philadelphia, 16-0, in the second half.
Philadelphia, who ranked fifth overall at 103.4 rushing yards per game in the regular season, averaged 5.1 yards per rush against the league’s best rushing defense last week in the Generals. Quarterback Case Cookus was particularly effective, gaining 39 rushing yards and a touchdown on just four carries. His ability to extend plays outside the pocket was a key component in the club’s upset win.
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This matchup also features the two-best teams at pressuring the quarterback, with the Stars and Stallions sitting atop the league with 27 sacks.
Philadelphia’s defensive pressure was on full display against New Jersey, posting seven tackles for loss and two sacks while causing three turnovers. Since Week 2, Birmingham has not allowed an opponent to score more than 18 points in a game - surrendering a league-low 14.9 points per game over that nine-game span.
Respected money finds value in backing under 45.5 in a title clash that would likely need multiple special teams and/or defensive scores for the over to cash..
In our Week 1 USFL preview back on April 13, we shared that respected money in Vegas made two futures investments. The long shot play involved backing Philadelphia to win the championship at +600 odds. That wager is alive and well 11 weeks later, leaving us with incredible value on a Stars team that is 5-1 in its last six games and finds its moneyline odds now slashed to +155 by oddsmakers.
BEST BET: Philadelphia/Birmingham Game Total: UNDER 45.5
Philadelphia +600 Futures Investment (Made prior to season)
USFL RECORD: 10-10 ATS
USFL BEST BET: 6-4 ATS
USFL EXOTICS: 0-2
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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