Bets and analysis for the fourth week of USFL action.
The first two weeks of USFL action was a wise investment for bettors who backed the favorites and the under. However, in Week 3, underdogs flipped the script and went 3-1 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS).
The one constant for bettors remains low-scoring contests as wagering on under the projected total by oddsmakers emerged victorious in three of the four games.
Favorites still hold the edge overall with 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS marks, while the under has cashed in eight of the 12 games (67%).
The kicking game continues to be a massive issue as the eight clubs are just 21-for-40 (52.5%) combined in field goals over. Special teams did find an improvement in the overall two-point conversion numbers after Michigan went 3-for-3 in Week 3, bringing the season numbers up to 5-of-10 (50%) through three weeks of action.
USFL fans have seen only one team (Philadelphia Stars, Week 2) attempt and successfully convert a three-point extra try following a touchdown.
The new USFL consists of eight teams playing a 10-week regular-season schedule. The eight clubs are separated into two divisions: the North Division and the South Division. Making up the North are the New Jersey Generals, Philadelphia Stars, Michigan Panthers, and Pittsburgh Maulers. The South consists of the Houston Gamblers, New Orleans Breakers, Birmingham Stallions, and Tampa Bay Bandits.
Odds to Win 2022 USFL Championship
Birmingham Stallions +225
New Orleans Breakers +300
Tampa Bay Bandits +450
Philadelphia Stars +600
New Jersey Generals +700
Houston Gamblers +1000
Michigan Panthers +1000
Pittsburgh Maulers +1600
Week 4 Lines
Friday, May 6
Philadelphia Stars vs. Michigan Panthers
Records: PHI (1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS) / MICH (1-2 SU; 1-2 ATS)
Spread: MICH -1.5
Moneyline: PHI -110 / MICH -118
Total: 36.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET/FS1
Steam: PHI -3.5 to MICH -1.5 / Total 37.5 to 36.5
Mandatory Credit: Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports
Saturday, May 7
New Jersey Generals vs. Pittsburgh Maulers
Records: NJ (2-1 SU; 2-1 ATS) / PIT (0-3 SU; 0-3 ATS)
Spread: New Jersey -9.5
Moneyline: NJ -500 / PIT +310
Total: 35.5
Time: 2:30 p.m. ET/Peacock
Steam: NJ -7.5 to -9.5
Tampa Bay Bandits vs. Birmingham Stallions
Records: TB (2-1 SU; 1-2 ATS) / BIRM (3-0 SU; 3-0 ATS)
Spread: BIRM -3.5
Moneyline: BIRM -200 / TB +145
Total: 41.5
Time: 7 p.m. ET/Fox
Steam: Total from 40.5 to 41.5
Sunday, May 8
Houston Gamblers vs. New Orleans Breakers
Records: HOU (1-2 SU; 2-1 ATS) / NO (2-1 SU; 2-1 ATS)
Spread: New Orleans -4.5
Moneyline: NO -213 / HOU +160
Total: 41.5
Time: 3 p.m. ET/NBC
Steam: New Orleans -4 to -4.5
*ALL games this week will be played at Protective Stadium in Birmingham, Ala.
The USFL, like the XFL a few years ago, offers some solid investing opportunities for bettors. Sportsbooks do not possess any algorithms since they fail to own any historical data to input into their models, as well as the new rules giving way to unpredictable scores you would not traditionally see in NFL or NCAA games.
Week 4 Respected Plays
Philadelphia-Michigan UNDER 36.5
We learned Wednesday that Philadelphia starting quarterback Bryan Scott has left the team in Birmingham to “return home to address his injury (knee).” Scott ranks as the third-best quarterback through three games, throwing for 558 yards and five touchdowns. The Stars will now turn to backup Case Cookus, who played well in relief last week against New Jersey. However, Cookus will face the league’s top-ranked defense in Michigan who is allowing a paltry 9.0 points per game. Upon the news, respected money arrived in Vegas driving the posted total of 37.5 down to 36.5. After posting the first shutout in USFL history last week, the Panthers could be in line for a second consecutive dominant defensive outing facing a backup quarterback.
New Orleans -4.5
New Orleans came up short in its big test last week against undefeated Birmingham. In Week 4, the Breakers get the perfect bounce-back spot facing arguably the league’s worst defense in Houston, which has surrendered a league-high 72 points (24.0 ppg). Respected money targeted New Orleans as 4.5-point favorites Wednesday night and expectations are this line will only grow as we get closer to kickoff Sunday.
USFL RECORD: 3-3 ATS
USFL BEST BET: 2-1 ATS
USFL EXOTICS: 0-1
USFL Week 3 Review
Tampa Bay Posts Comeback Victory Over Houston
Tampa Bay quarterback Jordan Ta’amu led the Bandits to a thrilling, come-from-behind 27-26 win over Houston. Tampa Bay took over at its 24-yard line at the two-minute warning and drove the field for a game-winning 46-yard field goal by Tyler Rausa with 13 seconds remaining. The Bandits, now 2-1, bounced back for a much-needed victory after being dominated by New Orleans, 34-3, in Week 2.
The second-half collapse by Houston, whom led 23-14 at halftime, spoiled the best rushing effort in the USFL this season by the league’s leading rusher Mark Thompson. The powerful running back ran for 147 rushing yards and a touchdown, giving the Gamblers outstanding balance on offense.
Despite losing the game, Houston still delivered as one of two bets shared here by respected money in Vegas—covering as a 1.5-point underdog. The ‘hook’ was clearly the friend of underdog bettors in the first game of Week 3.
Players of Note
TB QB Jordan Ta’amu - 255 pass yards; pass TD; 29 rush yards; rush TD
TB RB Juwan Washington - 65 rush yards; rush TD; 3 rec / 29 rec yards
TB WR Derrick Dillon -6 rec / 124 rec yards / rec TD
HOU QB Clayton Thorson - 240 pass yards, 2 pass TDs; INT
HOU RB Mark Thompson - 147 rush yards; rush TD; 1 rec/ 10 rec yards
HOU WR Anthony Ratliff-Williams - 2 recs / 85 rec yards; rec TD
HOU WR Isaiah Zuber - 3 recs / 73 rec yards; rec TD
BETTING RESULTS: HOU +1.5; OVER 39.5
Birmingham Dominates New Orleans; Lone Unbeaten Team
In arguably the biggest game we have seen thus far in the USFL between two undefeated clubs, the hometown Stallions emerged as the lone unbeaten club after dominating the Breakers, 22-13. The Breakers, a target of the respected money in Vegas as 3.5-point favorites, eventually closed as 6.5-point favorites. However, the Stallions were up to the task in Week 3 and burned the wise guys in the desert.
Birmingham’s defense wreaked havoc for the New Orleans offense, causing three turnovers while sacking quarterback Kyle Sloter four times. One of the biggest plays of the game came at the 6:03 mark in the first quarter. With the game scoreless, the Stallions defense came up with a huge defensive stand by causing a fumble by Sloter as he attempted to rush the ball into the end zone from the 1-yard line on 3rd-and-goal. That play changed the complexion of the game and swung all the momentum.
Dual-threat signal-caller J’Mar Smith was efficient in throwing for 197 passing yards and two touchdowns, while adding another 59 rushing yards on the ground.
Players of Note
BIRM QB J’Mar Smith - 197 pass yards, 2 pass TDs; 59 rush yards
BIRM RB CJ Marable - 36 rush yards; 4 rec / 14 rec yards
BIRM WR Marlon Williams - 1 recs / 47 rec yards; rec TD
BIRM WR Victor Bolden Jr. - 6 recs / 70 rec yards; rec TD
NO QB Kyle Sloter - 240 pass yards; 2 pass TDs
NO RB Jordan Ellis- 90 rush yards
NO WR Johnnie Dixon - 7 recs / 86 rec yards / 2 rec TDs
BETTING RESULTS: NO +6.5; UNDER 44.5
Michigan Blanks Pittsburgh In League’s First Shutout
Michigan, whom oddsmakers made the preseason betting favorite to win the USFL, finally earned its first win after beating hapless Pittsburgh, 24-0 in Week 3. All three of the Panthers’ touchdowns came on the ground. In addition, Jeff Fisher decided to attempt a two-point conversion after each score was a perfect 3-for-3.
Despite earning its first victory of the season, Michigan still has massive issues at the quarterback position. Shea Patterson and Paxton Lynch combined for a paltry 72 passing yards on 25 passing attempts. However, Lynch was effective with his legs rushing for both a touchdown as well a two-point conversion.
Bettors should keep an eye on the injury report, as Lynch’s status for Week 4 is uncertain after being forced to leave the Week 3 win due to injury.
The Maulers moved the ball on the Panthers’ defense, but they were unable to finish any of their drives. Pittsburgh’s Ramiz Ahmed was 0-3 in field goal attempts, which helped secure the first shutout in the USFL this season.
Players of Note
MICH RB Reggie Corbin - 133 rush yards; rush TD
MICH RB Stevie Scott III - 54 rush yards; rush TD
PIT QB Josh Love - 83 pass yards
PIT RB Madre London - 68 rush yards
PIT WR Tre Walker -5 recs / 58 rec yards
BETTING RESULTS: MICH -2.5; UNDER 39.5
New Jersey Moves Into First Place in North Division
New Jersey once again exhibited a dominant running game, amassing 264 rushing yards, averaging 5.7 yards per rush and three touchdowns. Dual-threat quarterback De’Andre Johnson was outstanding, compiling 221 total yards and a rushing score.
Running back Trey Williams led the offensive attack with 110 rushing yards, which helped the Generals dominate the time of possession battle 36:48 to 23:12.
Once Scott left the game with a knee injury, New Jersey’s defense clamped down on the Stars’ rushing game, holding the club to just 31 yards on the ground.
Following the upset win, the Generals now hold sole possession of first place in the North Division and will look to extend their lead in Week 4 against winless Pittsburgh.
Players of Note
NJ QB De’Andre Johnson - 130 pass yards; 91 rush yards; rush TD
NJ RB Trey Williams - 110 rush yards/ 4 recs / 44 yards
NJ RB Darius Victor - 49 rush yards; 2 rush TD
NJ WR KaVontae Turpin - 5 rec / 78 rec yards
PHI TE Bug Howard - 4 recs / 78 rec yards; rec TD
PHI WR Jordan Suell - 4 recs / 71 rec yards
BETTING RESULTS: NJ +1.5; UNDER 40.5
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter Hide sid@Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
Check the Latest Odds at SI Sportsbook
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter
More Betting and Fantasy:
• NHL Playoffs Betting Preview
• NBA Eastern Conference Betting Preview
• NBA Western Conference Betting Preview
• NBA Championship Futures
• Kentucky Derby Betting Profiles
• NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Odds
• NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
• NFL Draft Fantasy Winners and Losers
• MLB Futures After First Month