Sportsbook projections are incredibly accurate, so their numbers should direct fantasy decisions.
This is the third in a series of how to use the sportsbooks to your advantage. How can game lines and player props be used to give your fantasy football team an edge?
With the popularity of sports betting, there is no shortage of places to find information. It’s incredible how accurate sportsbooks are with their projections. I mean, if you think about it, they have to be, or they’re out of business. They don’t just have a loss to their college roommate on the line; they have real skin in the game.
Let’s take an early look at what the sportsbook has for us this week, and see what we may be able to surmise.
I always start with checking the highest game total of the week. For the second week in a row, the game involves Tom Brady.
Buffalo (+3.5) @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) GAME TOTAL: 53.5
Well, first of all, 50.5 being the highest game total of the week isn’t exactly inspiring. SI Sportsbook thinks Tampa Bay wins this one, but both teams could be in for a big day. The game total is a full three points higher than the highest game total from last week So, should you expect a bounce-back from Josh Allen? Vegas says yes.
Josh Allen
Over 1.5 TD -210
Under 1.5 TD +155
Over 290.5 passing yards -115
Over 31.5 rushing yards -115
Allen is nearly a lock to throw for two passing TDs. You would have to lay $210 to win $100 on this bet. It’s a terrible bet for your bankroll, but an excellent bet for your fantasy team. If you are in a 4 points for passing TD league, you can expect 8 points from TDs and about another 11 from passing yards, with another three on the ground. That’s a 20-plus point game and a must start.
Tom Brady
Over 2.5 TD +125
Under 2.5 TD -170
Over 308.5 passing yards -115
Max Gersh/IndyStar/USA TODAY Network
Vegas also thinks Brady throws for two, but his passing yards mark is even higher. Start both QBs in this matchup.
As far as receivers go, Stefon Diggs has the highest receiving yards prop in this game at 78.5. Chris Godwin is expected to have another good game, with the highest receiving yards prop for the Bucs at 72.5.
No Buffalo running back should be trusted, which should come as no surprise. The only Buffalo running back with a rushing prop this early is Devin Singletary -- and it’s only 31.5. So, if you were looking for clarity on Zach Moss or Matt Breida, Vegas isn’t weighing in yet. But, let’s face it, if you can avoid starting any running backs vs. the Tampa Bay run defense, that’s what you should do.
Now, let’s look at the lowest game total for this week. This one is very interesting, not because you are starting any Houston Texans, but because we are still wondering when Russ and the Seattle offense is going to cook. Let’s see if Vegas gives us any clues, because this certainly looks to me like a favorable matchup:
Seattle (-8.5) @ Houston (+8.5) GAME TOTAL: 41
So, Vegas does not expect many points in this game. That’s not great news, but it does expect Seattle to score 8.5 more points. That could be a plus for Russ. We don’t have passing touchdown props yet, but we do have passing yards props for our QBs.
Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports
Russell Wilson
Over 239.5 passing yards -115
Davis Mills
Over 220.5 passing yards -115
Even though Mills is expected to be playing from behind, his passing yards prop is lower. Also interesting? Look at these receiving props:
Receiving yards
Tyler Lockett over 65.5 -115
DK Metcalf over 59.5 -115
Brandin Cooks under 57.5 -115
Vegas expects both top Seattle receivers to have a better day than Houston’s top receiver. No running back props have been posted yet for this game, so keep your eyes peeled. Both teams have weak run defenses, and I will be looking for which running back has the most favorable odds for a touchdown in this one.
Wilson should be able to get you a solid floor this weekend, but the game total is low, so he may not be a league-winner this weekend. Keep checking back for passing TD props. If there is more juice on the over of 1.5 TDs, start him.
Finally, if you’re looking for a QB streamer, Vegas says don’t chase the points with Jared Goff:
Jared Goff
Under 1.5 TD -130
Over 1.5 TD +165
Under 227.5 passing yards -140
Over 227.5 passing yards +105
So… one TD and 227 yards? Nah. Perhaps the other QB in this game is more usable:
Teddy Bridgewater
Over 1.5 TD -130
Under 1.5 TD +100
Over 238.5 -115
Under 238.5 -115
Two touchdowns and 238 yards? That sounds more like it. But let’s check in on one more streamer...
Taylor Heinicke
Under 1.5 TD -150
Over 1.5 TD +115
Under 242.5 passing yards -115
Over 242.5 passing yards -115
Over .5 interceptions -185
One touchdown and 242 passing yards for Heinicke with a heavily juiced interception. Nope.
Vegas says Teddy B is the streamer for the week.
Check back Sunday
The closer we get to game time, the more accurate these props become. Sunday morning is a great time to go check what the sportsbook is predicting. Maybe a last-minute injury came up, maybe the weather will affect some games, or maybe the sportsbook heard that OBJ wasn’t participating in warmups and his props suddenly reflect that he’s likely a decoy.
For this week, I am keeping an eye on the Chargers situation as well as the Lions running backs and some injured Cincinnati players.
Of course, Vegas can be wrong. When we are betting, we are looking for flaws in the lines, and we will always point those out as opportunities to grow your bankroll. But, there’s a reason sports betting is a multi-billion-dollar industry. Most of the time, the sportsbooks are pretty accurate with their predictions. Remember, they HAVE to be, and you can use that to your advantage
More Fantasy & NFL: