Sportsbook projections are incredibly accurate, so their numbers should direct fantasy decisions.
This is the fourth in a series of how to use the sportsbooks to your advantage. How can game lines and player props be used to give your fantasy football team an edge?
With the popularity of sports betting, there is no shortage of places to find information. It’s incredible how accurate sportsbooks are with their projections. I mean, if you think about it, they have to be, or they’re out of business. They don’t just have a loss to their sister’s ex-boyfriend on the line; they have real skin in the game.
Now, right off the bat, let’s get this out of the way. The COVID outbreak is making this week incredibly volatile. The sportsbooks are taking a lot of time putting out payer props, because they just don’t have enough information. So, if there are player props available for a game, we can assume Vegas believes those players and games are reliable enough for them to make odds.
I always start with checking the highest game total of the weekend. Well, the highest game total for this weekend isn’t very high.
Arizona (-11.5) @ Detroit (+11.5) GAME TOTAL: 47.5
Arizona is heavily favored here, which indicates they will likely be playing with a lead. That immediately makes me want to use James Conner in my lineups. A quick perusal of TD props says he is -190 for an anytime TD. That’s a LOT of juice for a touchdown, and Conner is a fantasy must-start, assuming he goes. With no DeAndre Hopkins, if you’re wondering which pass-catcher Vegas thinks is most likely to score for the Cardinals, it’s Christian Kirk at +130, with A.J. Green and Zach Ertz both coming in at +160.
The lowest game total of the week once again involves Houston.
Houston (+4.5) @ Jacksonville (-4.5) GAME TOTAL: 39.5
Not a lot of points are expected in this game, so you probably shouldn’t start many players in this game. But, there are a few interesting things to note:
1. Jacksonville is favored
2 The line moved to favor them more after Urban Meyer was let go.
There is one very interesting prop posted for this game: James Robinson’s rushing yards are set at 85.5.
That’s really high for a guy that has only rushed for 28 yards across the past two contests. Clearly, Vegas believes interim head coach Darrell Bevell when he says Robinson is the starting running back and will be used as such.
Since Vegas thinks Jacksonville wins this one, and Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards are set at 61.5, I am inclined to start Cooks and hope Davis Mills will target him even more because they are playing catch up.
We also have one Saturday game this week with player props available.
New England (+2.5) @ Indianapolis (-2.5) GAME TOTAL: 45
Again, this is not a very high game total, but there’s no way you aren’t starting Jonathan Taylor. A lot has been made of Bill Belichick’s ability to take out the opposing team’s No. 1, but the sportsbook still sets Taylor’s total yards at 119.5. So, don’t panic. Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to lead the New England backfield with a rushing yards prop of 65.5, so fire him up!
Vegas expects similar performances from both QBs in this game, and neither one looks like it will win you your week in the fantasy football playoffs.
Carson Wentz
Over 226.5 passing yards -115
Over 1.5 TDs +120
Mac Jones
Over 233.5 passing yards -115
Over 1.5 TDs +110
Michael Pittman Jr. has the highest receiving yards prop at 58.5, and he’s also the favorite receiver in this game to find the end zone, at +138. Among New England receivers, Kendrick Bourne is the favorite at +210. Bourne is a flex -- at best -- with a receiving prop of 38.5.
Check back Sunday
The closer we get to game time, the more accurate these props become. Sunday morning is a great time to go check what the sportsbook is predicting. COVID is going to turn everything on its ear. When looking for the next man up, always look for how much juice is on the prop. For example, if a bet has -150 odds, you have to lay $150 to win $100, and that’s a good bet for your fantasy lineup, even though it may not be a wise one for your bankroll!
More fantasy & betting:
- NFL DFS Week 15 Picks, Plays and Values
- Week 15 Rankings and Stat Projections
- Nightmare Matchup for Jonathan Taylor
- Betting Roundtable: Patriots-Colts
- Betting Roundtable: Raiders-Browns