Against the spread bets for Thursday’s Sweet 16 matchup between No. 2 Villanova and No. 11 Michigan in the South Region.
Men's Sweet 16: No. 2 Villanova vs. No. 11 Michigan
There aren't too many brackets that correctly picked Villanova and Michigan meeting in the Sweet 16. Nonetheless, here we are, afterall, this is March Madness.
These are two teams in very different places—the Wolverines hadn’t won two games in a row for a month before the tournament began while the Wildcats are riding a seven-game winning streak. And yet 'Nova and Michigan have an Elite Eight matchup against either No. 1 Arizona or No. 5 Houston staring them in the face.
Matt Ehalt and I broke down this game and made our picks.
Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 19-16-1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 16-23-1
Sweet 16 betting previews: Gonzaga-Arkansas | Arizona-Houston | Two Bets for Thursday
Check the Latest NCAA Tournament Odds and Lines from SI Sportsbook
Darron Cummings/AP
No. 11 Michigan (19-14) vs. No. 2 Villanova (28-7)
Time: 7:29 p.m. ET | TBS
Spread: Michigan +5 (-110) | Villanova -5 (-118)
Moneyline: Michigan (+180) | Villanova (-225)
Over/Under: Under 134.5 (-110) | Over 134.5 (-118)
Michigan’s Path
The Wolverines were a surprise pick to get a bye directly into the round of 64 and now they’re still dancing in the Sweet 16. Michigan was somewhat of a surprise favorite in the first round against No. 6 Colorado State given the seeding difference. Michigan shrugged off a seven-point halftime deficit to beat the Rams, 75-63. In the second round against No. 3 Tennessee, the Wolverines again trailed at the half, this time by five points, and came away with an impressive 76-68 victory. Center Hunter Dickinson led Michigan in scoring in both contests (21 and 27 points).
Villanova’s Path
Villanova has looked like one of the more dominant teams in the field thus far. They’ve beaten both of their opponents soundly and limited them to low-scoring outputs in a tournament that has seen some high-scoring contests. The Wildcats beat No. 15 Delaware, 80-60, and handled No. 7 Ohio State, 71-61. Justin Moore and Collin Gillespie each lead the team in scoring in one game by hitting the 20-point mark.
Kyle Wood’s Bet: Michigan +5.5
The Wolverines can certainly hang with the Wildcats and Hunter Dickinson is a huge reason why. At 7’1”, he towers over most opposing big men and he was a matchup problem for Tennessee and likely will be against Villanova. The Wildcats don't give big minutes to any player taller than 6’7” other than Jermaine Samuels. The biggest challenge for Michigan won’t be keeping pace offensively; it will come on defense against the sharp-shooters of Villanova. UM is average at defending the three. So long as Colin Gillespie and Co. don’t light it up from outside, Michigan has what it takes to hang around with Villanova, who I still ultimately think will win this game.
Matt Ehalt’s Bet: Villanova -5.5
Michigan deserves praise for making it to the Sweet 16, but I don’t see the Wolverines getting by the Wildcats. Villanova is a tough team that forces opponents to play such clean basketball to win, and even that is not enough at times.
I expect Villanova’s defense to get more stops than Michigan can in this game and I am not that worried that Michigan will overwhelm the Wildcats down low. Villanova can take away your best player. They found ways to limit one of the better big men in the country in UConn’s Adama Sanogo in their three matchups this year.
Villanova also has covered both games in the tournament and is above .500 Against The Spread (ATS), while Michigan is slightly below .500.
One final thought: Villanova is a battle-tested team that shows up for big games. Michigan’s last opponent, Tennessee, is coached by Rick Barnes, whose teams are known for coming up short. That’s not the case with a Jay Wright team.
Villanova can win this by at least two to three baskets.
Matt Ehalt NCAA tournament against the spread (ATS) record: 19-16-1
Kyle Wood NCAA tournament ATS record: 16-23-1
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