A best bet and analysis for the over/under of 210.5 points at SI Sportsbook for Game 6 of the NBA Finals, the lowest projection of any Celtics-Warriors game yet.
The NBA Finals have not necessarily been the peak of basketball performance through five games.
Jayson Tatum tossed up a couple of airballs in Game 5, Steph Curry recorded his first game in years without a made three-pointer last time out and the Celtics are turning the ball over at an alarming rate throughout the series.
Both offenses have largely been ugly, with exceptions like Curry’s 43-point Game 4 masterpiece or stretches where Boston looks like it will never miss a three again.
A noticeable scoring dip as the Finals have progressed resulted in the lowest over/under of the series at SI Sportsbook for Game 6: 210.5 points.
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Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The point total in Game 1 closed at 214 and these teams smashed that by more than 10 points thanks to the Celtics’ three-point barrage that resulted in a 120-108 win. Even though the Warriors won three of the next four games to claim a 3-2 series lead, that remains the highest combined scoring output of the series.
The line for Game 2 closed at 213.5 and Golden State clamped up on defense and held Boston to a playoff-low point total. The Warriors ensured the under cashed with ease in a 107-88 win, a sign of things to come.
Back in Boston, the C’s delivered a 116-100 win in Game 3. The over/under was set at a series-high 214.5 and Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart each scored 20-plus points to help send that game over, though just barely.
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The point total fell for Games 4 and 5 and these teams still managed to stay under as the Celtics offense cratered and the Warriors have still yet to break 110 points. Only 204 points were scored in Game 4, a 107-97 Warriors road win, and the Game 5 combined total didn’t even crack 200 points—Golden State won, 104-94 back at the Chase Center. The lines in those games were set at 213.5 and 211.5, respectively.
NBA Finals Game 6 Same-Game Parlay
To catch up with Boston’s failing offense and both team’s staunch defense, the over/under is now 210.5 for the potential closeout game at TD Garden.
Golden State averaged better than 110 ppg in all three series before the Finals, where it averages a postseason-worst 105.2 ppg. It also entered with the highest postseason scoring average, though that figure has fallen this series and now ranks second behind Memphis. Similarly, Boston is averaging a playoff-low 103 ppg in the Finals.
The Celtics own the two highest-scoring games in the series and they also posted the three lowest, having been held below 100 points three times, all in losses.
These two teams finished with the No. 1 and 2 defensive ratings in the regular season with offensive ratings outside of the top five. Perhaps the dearth of points in the Finals should have been expected, though it’s difficult to predict game-to-game with offenses led by players capable of scoring 40-plus points at will.
GAME 6 BETTING ANALYSIS
I’m tempted to go over this low line, but Boston’s past three elimination games inform my pick. Two of the three did not reach 200 total points as the Celtics’ defense delivered in a big way against the Bucks and Heat, allowing less than 100 points in each game. Thursday may be a better showing for Boston’s offense, but I believe its defense will lead the charge, even if Curry rebounds from a scoring perspective.
BET: Under 210.5 (-110)
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