Phoenix beat Golden State by 29 less than a month ago, but the Warriors are 1-point road favorites Wednesday night.
The Warriors and Suns meet Wednesday night for the second time this season and the last clash between these clubs was one to remember.
Phoenix dominated Golden State in the desert, 134-105. Tensions were high as Klay Thompson was ejected, Steph Curry was held to one of his lowest point totals of the year and Devin Booker poured on the points.
Just a few weeks removed from that first meeting, these teams face off again and the Warriors are somewhat surprisingly a slight favorite on the road. The status of Chris Paul (heel) is something to monitor in the lead-up to this contest and certainly is factored into that spread.
Below is the betting breakdown for Warriors-Suns, complete with an against the spread pick, over/under wager and prop bet.
Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns
Time: 10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Spread: Warriors -1 (-108) | Suns +1 (-112)
Moneyline: Warriors (-112) | Suns (-104)
Total: 227.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports
Warriors Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 6-8
Against the Spread Record: 5-9
Over/Under Record: 7-6-1
Points Per Game (Rank): 117.4 (3)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 117.5 (27)
Suns Betting Profile
Straight-Up Record: 8-5
Against the Spread Record: 8-5
Over/Under Record: 5-7-1
Points Per Game (Rank): 112.5 (14)
Points Allowed Per Game (Rank): 106.1 (1)
Spread Bet: Suns +1 (-112)
Beyond the dominant nature of the Suns’ last win against the Warriors, there are two records that inform this pick: Phoenix is 6-1 at home and Golden State is 0-7 on the road. The recent struggles for the Suns occurred across a four-game East Coast road trip. Now that they’re returning to Arizona—where their only loss came on a buzzer beater—they should return to their winning ways.
Meanwhile, the Dubs can’t buy a win away from the Chase Center, even against a relatively soft schedule. Still, their play over the last week or so has been vastly improved after their disastrous start. They are 3-2 over their last five with a quality win against Cleveland.
I like Phoenix getting a point at home. Paul has missed the last three on the road but Booker has stepped up as a distributor when called upon without sacrificing any of his scoring. And one of his best games of the season came against the Warriors on this court.
Over/Under Bet: Under 227.5 (-110)
These teams combined for nearly 240 points in the last meeting, though the Suns accounted for the majority of the scoring. Golden State has been a bit better on defense recently and Phoenix has had struggles scoring—it’s been held under 100 points twice over its last five games. Neither team has an outlier over/under record as they’re both hovering around .500, which has me inclined to lean under on this somewhat high total. And the orchestrator of the Suns’ offense might not play, which would be another reason to err on the side of fewer points.
Prop Bet: Deandre Ayton Under 15.5 Points (-110)
Ayton’s scoring has been all over the place this season. He has two games with over 20 points and three in single digits. In the last meeting against Golden State, he went for 16 points and shot a season-high four free throws. So far in November, even though his minutes per game are up, his scoring, shot attempts and free-throw attempts are all down and foul trouble continues to be a bit of a concern. If Paul can’t go, it will be tough for Ayton to manufacture points inside on his own and he rarely adds much at the charity stripe.
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter
Check the Latest Odds from SI Sportsbook
More Betting, Fantasy and NBA:
• Cavaliers-Bucks Odds, Spead, Over/Under, Prop
• Week 11 NFL Spreads, Matchups
• World Cup Odds
• How to Bet on the World Cup
• Week 11 Start ’Em, Sit ’Em: RB
• The Celtics’ Historic Scoring Pace