The Commanders have a new name and a new quarterback this season. Can they finally break past the seven-win mark with their over/under set at 7.5 once again?
Seven wins were not enough to get the Football Team back into the playoffs in an improved NFC East a season ago. Armed with a new identity and quarterback, expectations are marginally higher for the newly-named Commanders heading into the 2022 season.
Carson Wentz is the team’s new signal caller, returning to the division where his career began, and the front office retained receiver Terry McLaurin with a big-money deal in the offseason. Beyond the upgrade at quarterback from Taylor Heinicke to Wentz, the biggest hope for year-over-year improvement for Ron Rivera’s squad hinges on the health of a defense that fell apart at the seams in 2021 after being dominant the year prior.
Washington's win total projection matches its expectations from last season when it entered the year with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback and had the momentum of a playoff appearance and a near upset of the eventual Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. The preseason projection in 2021 was 7.5 wins with heavy juice on the under. Now, the heavier odds are on the over.
The Commanders are swirling in controversy in the offseason, but if they have one thing working in their favor, it's that they're tied for the easiest schedule in the NFL. Can they make good on that draw and hit the over? Or is it a new name with the same old dreadful results for Washington?
AFC East Over/Under Wins Total: Bills | Patriots | Dolphins | Jets | Division Odds
NFC East Over/Under Wins Total: Cowboys | Eagles
Bet on the NFL at SI Sportsbook
Jerome Miron/USA TODAY Sports
Washington Commanders Over/Under: 7.5 - O (-133) | U (-105)
2021-22 record: 7-10; Third NFC East; Missed playoffs
NFC East future odds: +500 (Third)
NFC future odds: +2500 (10th)
Super Bowl future odds: +6600 (T-22nd)
Key additions: QB Carson Wentz, WR Jahan Dotson, G Andrew Norwell, G Trai Turner
Key losses: G Brandon Scherff, WR DeAndre Carter, S Landon Collins
Washington Football offseason grade: B-
“Washington didn’t do a whole lot with its offseason, opting for one large move rather than many small ones. With Wentz adding $28 million to the cap space, there wasn’t a whole lot of wiggle room to make any more moves. While there were other potential quarterback upgrades to make this offseason, Washington opted to make an affordable one in terms of assets, trading two third-round picks for their new quarterback. Wentz has one year to prove himself. If he doesn’t, the Commanders can tap into 2023’s loaded QB class.” — Jeremy Brener
SCHEDULE
Week 1: Jaguars
Week 2: at Lions
Week 3: Eagles
Week 4: at Cowboys
Week 5: Titans
Week 6: at Bears
Week 7: Packers
Week 8: at Colts
Week 9: Vikings
Week 10: at Eagles
Week 11: at Texans
Week 12: Falcons
Week 13: at Giants
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: Giants
Week 16: at 49ers
Week 17: Browns
Week 18: Cowboys
View the original article to see embedded media.
Wentz didn't exactly move the needle for the Commanders in the eyes of the sports books. Statistically, he bounced back during his one-year stint in Indianapolis with 27 touchdowns to seven interceptions, but he still finished 23rd among passers in PFF’s grading system.
Any upgrade on offense would go a long way for a unit that hasn't finished better than bottom-10 in points or yards since Kirk Cousins left after the 2017 season. The Commanders' lone playoff appearance since then came in 2020 on the backs of a lockdown defense that ranked second in yards and fourth in points allowed. Even if the defense doesn’t return to that level, it’s due for positive regression after the injury-laden tumble it took in 2021.
Washington returns a healthy Chase Young and Montez Sweat at defensive end and added a first-round receiver talent in Jahan Dotson in the draft. All that said, is there a route to eight wins on the schedule? Let’s see.
View the original article to see embedded media.
Division play will be difficult for the Commanders, who play the Eagles and Cowboys—both 2021 playoff teams—twice. Philadelphia only got better in the offseason, and though Dallas may have taken a step back, it should still take both games against Washington. The Commanders swept the Giants a season ago, but New York also made improvements by bringing in Brian Daboll from Buffalo. Let's call that a split, which brings the record against the NFC East to 1-5.
The rest of the NFC schedule is comparatively easy. Washington welcomes the Vikings, Packers and Falcons. Call that a loss to Minnesota in Cousins’ return to play his former team, another defeat against Aaron Rodgers and Co. and a victory against Atlanta. Now we’re at 2-7.
Road trips to play the Lions and Bears should be wins, though a Christmas Eve date with the 49ers in the Bay is probably a loss. That brings the record against the NFC to 4-8.
The Commanders having the easiest schedule in football is a byproduct of not just playing in the NFC East, which infamously saw all four teams finish below .500 in 2020, but also by drawing the AFC South in cross-conference play.
Washington gets the Jaguars and Titans at home and the Colts and Texans on the road. Let’s call that a 2-2 split with victories against Jacksonville and Houston and losses to Tennessee and Indianapolis, the division favorite. The Titans at home in Week 5 could be a winnable game, but let’s give the defending AFC No. 1 seed some respect.
That leaves one more cross-conference game against the Browns at home in Week 16. Unless Deshaun Watson is suspended for the entire season, which is sounding increasingly unlikely, Cleveland’s new quarterback will be making the trip for what should be an easy win for his team.
That’s a 2-3 record against the AFC for an estimated 6-11 finish overall.
The Commanders may sweep the Giants again or take a game off either the Eagles or Cowboys. Even if that happens, the path to eight wins is difficult for where this team currently stands, despite a relatively pedestrian schedule.
BET: Under 7.5 wins (-105)
Get fantasy and betting analysis in your inbox by signing up for the Winners Club newsletter
Check the Latest Odds from SI Sportsbook
More Betting, Fantasy and NFL:
• MLB Draft Betting Surprise
• American League Awards Odds
• Home Run Derby Betting Controversies
• Heisman Trophy Odds
• 2023 NFL Draft No. 1 Pick Odds
• Big 12 Betting Preview
• Super Bowl Futures
• SI Fantasy Draft Kit
• MMQB: Panthers Bolster QB Spot