Jordan Love might not have impressed in Week 9, but you shouldn't cut ties with him in fantasy just yet.
It’s already Week 10?!
Fantasy football season always seems to fly by. The dynasty stock watch continues to ruffle feathers and that’s the goal. If you agree with everything in any fantasy article, you should be worried. Be your own person, have your own opinions, filter in the good and filter out the bad.
This week’s dynasty tip is to understand that there are different ways to reach conclusions in this game.
Valuation goes beyond talent and opportunity. You can attempt to estimate a player’s ceiling and floor. If you’re the type of person to dive in deep with spreadsheets charting age-19 college production and how those players panned out based on their NFL draft round... Well I applaud you for your vim and vigor. I would recommend that you watch more tape and trust your gut.
For those of you of mostly trust your gut and watch tape, I recommend you get with the spreadsheet guy and see what he has to say. If you don’t like trade calculators, read the opinions of those who don’t. If you don’t like trade calculators, read the opinions of those who do. No one methodology has a monopoly on winning. Absorb it all, apply your knowledge and enjoy the ride.
Let’s ring the dynasty stock watch opening bell:
Check Week 10 odds at SI Sportsbook
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports
QB Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Over the first four weeks of the 2021 season, Mahomes was averaging per game 304.5 passing yards and 3.5 passing touchdowns. Your typical Mahomesian results. Over his last three games, he’s averaging per game 215 yards and 0.66 TDs. It goes without saying that nobody, not even the most panicky or flighty manager, is going to be baited into trading away Mahomes. But, this is something worth watching.
I look at it like this, in recent weeks, I’ve recommended selling (in specific contexts) Christian McCaffrey, Zach Wilson and Justin Fields. Ultimately, I’m looking to make a profit when I make a deal. I could have Tecmo Super Bowl Bo Jackson, and he can be had if the price is right.
OK, maybe I’ve gone too far. How about I could co-sign on trading away the No. 1 player in all of dynasty right now, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor, if someone is willing to overpay. Everybody has a price (a weekly dynasty tip for another day)—and so does Mahomes. I wouldn’t recommend buying the dip just yet, but I would explore how deep the dip goes for those holding him. I would put my hand up on Mahomes’ hip, when he dips, I dip, we dip.
Mahomes could come out over the next few weeks and toss a dozen TDs and we’d all forget about his and the Chiefs’ recent struggles. That’s the NFL. But join myself and Mr. Rogers on the trolley, we’re headed to the neighborhood of make-believe. What if he has another bad game or a string of them? What if he has been playing hurt and needs offseason surgery?
During a sustained slump—and that’s the key, a sustained slump—Mahomes’ value will inevitably fall for every manager, no matter the strength of their intestinal fortitude. However, if I have Mahomes, I’m riding him until he retires.
I do not trade him. Ever.
As long as his right arm is attached to his body, I will not trade Mahomes at a loss. Meaning, unless somebody is willing to go above and beyond his pre-slump cost, I’m going down with the ship. In a one-QB rebuild, two future firsts feels like enough on paper. I’d see where that gets me as a starting point. In a superflex, I’d how many future firsts it’d cost me. Three? I’m biting. Four? Maybe another bad week will get that manager on tilt. Like I said though, I’m holding. I’m grippin’. I’m staring into the Mahomes’ abyss until it looks back at me with a trade offer with a truckload of first round picks.
Win-Now: HOLD FOREVER
Rebuild: PRICE CHECK
Superflex: PRICE CHECK
I’m going to switch up the format this week with some quick thoughts on players.
RB James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
A couple weeks ago, I would’ve been perfectly fine if you sold high on Conner. At this point, he’s playing so well he could carry you to a league title. Easy to say about a guy with 11 TDs on the year. The PPR points will only last while Chase Edmonds is out, but stay out of your own way here and let the good times roll even in a rebuild because he might just push you into your league’s postseason.
Win-Now: HOLD
Rebuild: HOLD
Jay Biggerstaff/USA TODAY Sports
QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
I may be getting too deep into the weeds but I felt Green Bay's Week 9 game plan wasn’t really tailored to his skill set. A lot of throws and first-reads required a lot of precision and Love’s not there with his accuracy yet. The play design improved in the second half as they tweaked to make it work for him, but he’s green and it shows. The Chiefs just threw the sink at him in blitz packages and he did a decent job checking out of it at times, but if you’ve waited this long, just wait longer.
Win-Now: HOLD
Rebuild: HOLD
WR Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
In my Week 7 dynasty stock watch, I recommended readers to hold in a win-now and buy in a rebuild. I’m still at that conclusion. I think when you watch the guy play, you can see the talent is there. I am assuming where there’s smoke, there is fire and Kyle Shanahan or the 49ers at-large do have some kind of beef with his prep or attention to detail. I’m sure there’s something to it. However, I just like what I see when the quarterback delivers him the ball. His catch radius is insane.
Win-Now: HOLD
Rebuild: BUY
WR Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland Browns
I wouldn’t say I’m convinced. I’m cautiously optimistic. DPJ has an interesting mix of skills. He doesn’t play fast, his route-running doesn’t jump out at me. He has long speed, as some would call it, and I’m always hesitant about receivers who I feel are long striders. I like choppy feet, fast breaks, precision receivers with speed. That’s not DPJ’s game, but he’s making it work with his style of play. To his credit, he’s tall enough with long arms to challenge on 50-50 balls. He posts-up well at the top of routes and climbs to catch the ball at its high point.
Peoples-Jones has some weight to him so he can muscle-through smaller corners or break tackles. He reminds me a bit of Dwayne Bowe, who finished his career with the Browns after eight seasons with the Chiefs. Bowe was a more-than-capable WR1 in his prime and I think DPJ’s ceiling goes that high.
Win-Now: HOLD
Rebuild: HOLD
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