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Week 10 Dynasty Stock Watch: Malik Willis, Greg Dulcich

A couple of 2022 prospects are trending up and down, so both cases follow the golden dynasty rule: buy low, sell high.

I've written about Justin Fields quite a bit this season, but what I don't believe I've mentioned is that I was very anti-Fields in 2021 and far from bullish on him up until about three weeks ago.

In my Week 8 Dynasty Stock Watch last season, I lambasted Fields (and Zach Wilson) for needing more time. I went so far as to say I didn't believe they had even NFL starter upside. At that time, I was told I was wrong. I wasn't wrong, until a few weeks ago. Through Week 4 of this season, Fields was the QB31, averaging a whopping 10.4 fantasy points per game. From Weeks 5 to 9? QB1 overall, ladies and gents—technically QB3 with 25.9 ppg. Like I said, I was right about Fields, until I wasn't. I saw the error in my ways and pivoted. I even traded for Fields in two dynasty leagues. One trade was him for a 2023 first, straight up, and the other trade was for two 2023 seconds. Both trades were great values that could see immediate returns if I were so bold as to trade him now. But I won't tempt fate. I could understand an argument to sell high, but you better have a rock-solid quarterback group to move off of Fields.

I'm not touting my player evaluation skills. I'm more pointing out that you need to be open-minded enough to change your mind in real-time. Watch as much football as possible. Fields's upswing also isn't written in stone. There are ebbs and flows. Keep up if you can!

Let's get to the dynasty stock watch...

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QB Malik Willis, Tennessee Titans
Speaking of the harsh criticism I levied against Fields last season, I must foist the same upon Willis. I had him as my No. 1 QB prospect ahead of the draft and I still believe he has the highest ceiling of any other QB prospect, but after mind-numbing inefficiency in recent weeks, I believe we will see his dynasty value tank in the coming weeks and months. Like Fields, we see Willis improvise and rush away from pressure. We see a rocket arm that can connect at times. So we see what can be and we must cling to that. 

If I'm in a rebuild and I can sit on Willis for at least a year comfortably, I'll take that chance at his current price. I'd prefer him to be my team's QB3 so I don't ever have to start him, even on a bye week. In the meantime, we have to remember that he played at Liberty, which may as well be a D2 school in terms of its ability to coach up players. So this guy was as raw as they come. That's why Willis fell to the third round and we again saw that on display versus the Chiefs last week. There were brief moments early in which he showed promise. However, when the Titans were tied or down late and needed him to move the chains or make a play with his arm, he couldn't do it. I also assign blame on the coaching staff for not stripping down the play-calls to simplify his reads or move the pocket or call a couple more designed runs to keep the defense honest. Did you know Ryan Tannehill was a dual-threat QB prospect back in high school? He briefly played receiver when he was at Texas A&M before moving to quarterback. Another example of a guy needing time to become a good quarterback and it took him awhile too as he toiled in mediocrity with the Dolphins for so long. 

If you have the patience, bench depth and the stomach to wait on Willis for a season or two, I'd test the Willis manager in your league with a mild lowball offer.

Price check: 2023 second in superflex, 2024 second in 1QB
Win-now: Hold if you have a deep bench
Rebuild: Buy

TE Greg Dulcich, Denver Broncos
My brand of dynasty play is to punt the tight end position. Unless it's a TE-premium format or I somehow end up with Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews, I'm not paying up for the position. I'll take a flier on a Hunter Henry waiver add 10 times out of 10 before I commit draft capital to a tight end. Fantasy managers were clawing for Dallas Goedert to get the position to himself while Zach Ertz was ahead of him. Now here we are and Ertz is averaging all of 0.4 fantasy points per game fewer than Goedert. After Kelce, Andrews, Ertz, Goedert and T.J. Hockenson in the top-five, we have Taysom Hill, Tyler Conklin, Hayden Hurst, David Njoku and Gerald Everett rounding out the top 10. Yuck.

Now emerging over the Broncos' last three games, Greg Dulcich, a third round rookie out of UCLA, has collected 12 catches for 182 yards and a touchdown. With that—and it ain't much—his dynasty value is out of control. His dynasty value in the last month on Fantasy Calc has doubled and more than doubled on Keep Trade Cut.

I won't be buying. Yes, having an elite tight end can be a huge advantage. But the trade value exceeds what I feel is reasonable and it feels a touch too reactionary for my tastes. I had Dulcich as my No. 9 TE prospect this year. Other notables would be Isaiah Likely at No. 5 and Cade Otton at No. 6. I would rather trade Dulcich to the highest bidder and maybe snag a high 2023 second for him. I believe the NFL when they tell me this position is expendable. There's a few teams that use them and most don't. I won't conflate scarcity with value. I'm only holding him if my team is near dead-last, then I don't mind shooting for the moon. I'd prefer the moon, anyway.

Price check: 2023 early second
Win-now: Sell
Rebuild: Hold

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