Which players will shine and what props will cash as the Ravens head to Miami to battle the Dolphins in prime time?
The AFC North-leading Ravens (6-2) travel to Miami to face the Dolphins (2-7) for Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 10 betting.
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AP Photo/G. Newman Lowrance
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
- Moneyline: Baltimore (-400) | Miami (+310)
- Spread: Baltimore -7.5 (-110) | Miami +7.5 (-110)
- Total: 46.5 -Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Game Info: Nov. 11, 2021, 8:20 p.m. ET | NFL Network
First things first. We don’t know who will be under center for Miami on Thursday. What we do know is that it will either be Jacoby Brissett or Tua Tagavailoa with a compromised throwing hand.
Baltimore is the obvious straight-up pick (she types nervously the week after the Jags upset the Bills).
The Ravens offense has looked good behind QB superstar Lamar Jackson and a backfield that has been kept together with spit and 30 year-old baling wire. Baltimore has put up an average of 27.6 points per game—that’s the seventh-most in the league—and they have a special knack for come-from-behind wins.
Jackson has already led his squad to three double-digit comebacks this year (not that I am expecting the Ravens to be down at any point in this game, but maybe I’m still a little scarred from Week 9).
The Dolphins, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, except for a couple of good starts from a healthy Tua in soft matchups. Miami has averaged only 17.2 points per game—a full 10 fewer points than Baltimore—and we don’t yet know who will be at QB on Thursday.
Defensively, Baltimore has surrendered 24.4 points per game, and has allowed big games to Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Kirk Cousins. The Ravens have given up the second-most passing yards per game (282.5), and though they limit their opponents' ground yards per game (fifth-fewest in the league at 91.8), they have allowed 9 rushing TDs for an average of more than one per game.
The Dolphins have allowed even more points to opponents (26.9), and they can be attacked on both the ground and through the air. Miami has also surrendered more than one rushing touchdown per game, while giving up an average of 111 rushing yards per game. Miami has allowed the third-most passing yards per game (281) and 17 passing touchdowns to opposing QBs.
Baltimore won last week, but failed to cover the spread vs. Minnesota. It’s been a year since Baltimore has failed to cover a spread two weeks in a row, and Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will win this one by more than a score. Both defenses are leaky enough that I predict the game total will exceed 46.5
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Now, let’s hit some player props!
Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports
Jaylen Waddle over 60.5 receiving yards -120
Waddle has seen a total of 42 targets across the past four games. That’s an average of more than 10 per game, and he’s exceeded 60.5 yards in all but one of those games when he was facing a tough Bills defense. DeVante Parker remains sidelined, and whether it is Tua or Brissett, the Dolphins are likely to be chasing in this game.
Mike Gesicki over 53.5 receiving yards -125
The Ravens have surrendered an average of 75 yards per game to opposing tight ends—that’s the highest mark in the league. Not only that, but they have given up six touchdowns in only eight games—that’s the second-most in the league. Meanwhile, Mike Gesicki continues to be peppered with targets. Not only has he seen the fourth-most targets on the season amongst all tight ends, he’s had six red zone targets across the past five games. Gesicki has cleared this receiving prop in five of the last seven contests.
Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown over 56.5 receiving yards -125
I’m not sure why SI Sportsbook keeps setting his receiving prop so low, but until they come to their senses, I am going to keep hammering this prop! Miami has allowed the second most yards to opposing wide receivers, and Brown has met this mark in all but two contests this year.
Brown has seen 26 targets in just the last two games, so I’m not worried about Bateman becoming the alpha. The only danger is that Baltimore jumps out to a lead early and then tries to control the game tempo with the run committee, but Brown could easily meet this mark in just a few catches. Brown has had a 40+ yard catch in three games this year. With Miami allowing an average of 192 yards per game to opposing wide receivers, I just don’t see how Hollywood doesn’t log at least 57.
The Dolphins are allowing a 74.2% catch rate to opposing tight ends and Mark Andrews has seen eight red zone targets in the last five games. It’s been two weeks since he’s found the end zone, and this feels like a good spot.
Lamar Jackson under 1.5 passing TDs +100
OK, stay with me here. Miami’s run defense has allowed eight rushing TDs and Baltimore loves to run the ball—including with Lamar Jackson. In fact, Jackson has passed for more than one TD in only two games this year. If Baltimore jumps out to a lead early, there’s no reason to put the ball in the air.
The Ravens are averaging 161.6 rushing yards per game–the most in the league, and 11 rushing TDs—tied for fourth-most. Baltimore carries the ball across the goal line a couple of times, and we take the plus-money.
Devonta Freeman anytime TD +140
Latavius Murray is still not practicing, and Devonta Freeman will be leading this backfield. Last week he played 57% of the snaps and he’s averaging 5.7 yards per carry this year. He’s found the end zone in each of the last three games, and he’s both a rushing and receiving threat at the goal line.
Miles Gaskin will find the end zone even if he doesn’t have a lot of yards on the ground.
Baltimore has allowed an average of more than one rushing TD per game. Miami will either be rolling out a slightly banged up Tua or backup QB Jacoby Brissett, and that means the run game will be in play.
Parlay these two for a good payout. A $100 bet returns you $572.
This is the long shot of the week, but we know Baltimore uses a committee, and Bell saw one more red zone rush than Freeman last week.
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