Titans-Eagles game could produce a few winning plays.
There are 13 NFL games this Sunday and an unlimited amount of opportunities to get in on the action at SI Sportsbook. Three game totals are expected to go over 50, while only one is expected to stay under 40 (Denver-Baltimore).
Keep your eyes peeled for when the market populates for the Green Bay-Chicago game. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon are likely to exceed their rushing props, especially with Aaron Rodgers playing with an injury. Also, check on the Browns-Texans game. I like both Dameon Pierce and Nick Chubb in that matchup. There could be some value with Pierce, as he has underperformed in recent weeks, and the Browns are an extraordinarily favorable matchup for running backs.
I have chosen six props to consider, and I’m taking the over for five of the six. Be sure to jump on these values early!
Eric Hartline/USA Today Sports
Jalen Hurts over 1.5 passing TDs (+110)
Not only has Hurts thrown for 2-plus touchdowns in six of 11 games this season, he’s facing the Titans, who have allowed an average of 1.7 passing TDs per game and the second-most passing yards to opposing QBs this year. Yes, the Eagles are known for their ground game, but Hurts has the third-best passer rating (105.6) among QBs with more than one start this year. He’s ahead of Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
Trevor Lawrence over 13.5 rushing yards (-125)
Trevor Lawrence has been playing excellent football as of late, and this week he gets a tasty matchup against the Lions, who have allowed an average of 45 rushing yards per game to opposing QBs this season – 275 of those yards have come in just the last three contests, with Justin Fields, Daniel Jones and Josh Allen each logging 50-plus. Lawrence has exceeded this prop in two of his last three games and in five of 11 games this season.
Derrick Henry over 84.5 rushing yards (-120)
Henry has not had a 100-plus rushing yard game since Week 9, and that means we are all in on the value of this low rushing prop this week! The Eagles run defense has been bottom-nine in the league across the past four weeks, allowing an average of 120 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs. Make no mistake about it, Henry is still the king,
Miles Sanders under 60.5 rushing yards (-125)
Philadelphia has been dominant on the ground, but they are going to have a tough time vs. this Titans run defense that is allowing only 84.5 rushing yards per game this year. Sanders leads this committee for the Eagles, but Kenneth Gainwell, Boston Scott and Jalen Hurts will also eat into Sanders’s carries. Sanders has done well in soft matchups, but this is not one of them. Sanders has been carrying the ball an average of 16 times per game this season and the Titans have allowed only 2.94 yards per carry across the past four contests. If the Titans are on point, Sanders may not make it to 50.
Curtis Samuel over 7.5 rushing yards (-120)
Samuel has rushed for 12 or more yards in each of his last six contests, and I don’t see the wide receiver’s usage changing vs. a Giants team that is allowing 133 rushing yards per game over the past three. On the season, Samuel has exceeded this prop nine times, and he’s averaging 3.5 carries per game since Week 7. Both teams have a lot at stake in this NFC East rivalry game, and we should see Samuel used creatively.
A.J. Brown over 74.5 receiving yards (-125)
The Titans have allowed 188.5 receiving yards per game to opposing wideouts across the last four contests. A.J. Brown is still the top dog in Philadelphia, and with no Dallas Goedert, his opportunities should only increase. Brown is averaging 76 receiving yards per game, and he owns a 28.5% share of the team’s targets and 37.1% of its air yards (sixth in the NFL). Oh, and did I mention this is a revenge game for Brown vs. the Titans, who traded him away? Smash the over.
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