Even a minor discount on Lamar Jackson is worth seizing upon, but no discount necessary for Jalen Hurts.
That smug sense of self-satisfaction—you guessed it—is from yours truly. Back in my Week 8 Dynasty Stock Watch, I discussed the viability of Brock Purdy as a deep stash. While I viewed it more of a hedge bet against Trey Lance, the injury concerns of Jimmy Garoppolo were an obvious oversight. I'll get into that more later.
Purdy's emergence illuminates one pressing concern I have about most dynasty leagues. If you don't have substantial number of bench spots, it's not really dynasty to me. If every breakout player amounts to a game of FAAB, you effectively have removed evaluation as part of the league process. Sure, the mind games of FAAB are all well and good, but without the ability to call your shots with deep bench stashes, you're removing one of the differentiators that separates homers who keep their team's sixth WR and the part-time GMs and scouts who can identify talent. Flex your evaluation talents and consider a deep bench like a stock portfolio where you can cultivate trade value.
Let's get to the dynasty stock watch...
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Expectations are always a bit high for Lamar Jackson and a so-so game seems to hit his value harder than his quarterback peers. Likewise, a minor knee injury has taken a big bite out of Jackson’s trade value. On FantasyCalc, he's down about 25% in 1QB dynasties and about the same percentage in superflex. It's a less pronounced shift on KeepTradeCut. I would keep in mind that FantasyCalc bases value changes on trades (people who roster the player) and KTC consumes player valuations from anyone who visits the site. Of course, managers who move the player think less of the player than the managers who keep the player. All that said, I would test the fortitude of your league’s Jackson manager.
He will be 26 soon and while one could argue Jackson won't have the long career of a Tom Brady given his running style of play, Jackson should very easily have another five elite years left. I suppose you could view him as less valuable than somebody like Joe Burrow (who is older than Jackson, weird right?) because Burrow could play another 10 years. But if you're planning out a decade, you're playing the game wrong anyway. Jackson still doesn't have the right receivers and they're using kick returners (Devin Duvernay) and speedy slot receivers (Rashod Bateman), underachievers (Demarcus Robinson) and a decade past his prime DeSean Jackson. Do I trust Baltimore to ever invest in a stable of deep threats to best use Lamar's gunslinger habits? No. But even a team that so incompetently manages this roster, can't keep a running back healthy, can't add an actual deep threat receiver (Bateman's great, but going deep is not his bread and butter) for their star player still produces a top-five fantasy season for Jackson. I'm buying, tweaked knee or not.
Price check: 2023 1st, 2023 2nd
Superflex: Two 2023 1sts, 2023 2nd
Win-now: Buy/Hold
Rebuild: Buy/Hold
Maria Lysaker/USA Today Sports
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Speaking of dynamic quarterbacks, you probably can’t trade for Jalen Hurts right now. The manager who has him is probably comfortably making a playoff run. But on the off chance you can deal for him in the coming months, there probably isn’t a price I wouldn’t pay right now. How much would you give the Josh Allen manager to acquire him in 2019? Hurts is already playing great, right? Do we believe he’s already peaked now? At just 24 years old, he won’t be 25 until August. Hindsight is 20/20 but if I’m a bottom dweller rebuild team, I’d rather put all my eggs in one Hurts basket to get the youngest, most promising quarterback. On FantasyCalc, Hurts is only moderately more expensive than Justin Herbert and the same is true on KeepTradeCut. I suppose Hurts could just as likely have a third-year "letdown" next year like Herbert, but that has more to do with the team surrounding him than Herbert's own shortcomings. I only point out Herbert's price to show how depressed Hurts's price tag is at the moment. So again, if you're stockpiling picks, drop a bomb trade offer for Hurts and let the rest of these suckers sit on picks and what-if players. Go for the jugular and get the hottest guy going right now.
Price check: 2023 mid 1st, 2023 late 1st
Superflex: 2023 early 1st, 2023 mid 1st
Win-now: Buy/Hold
Rebuild: Buy/Hold
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Let's revisit my exact thoughts about Purdy from my Week 8 Dynasty Stock Watch:
Even if Lance is ready to go in Week 1 next year with no issues, we still may not see much development until well in to the 2023 season and beyond. Lance will be 23 next year and this bet on rookie Brock Purdy is a hail mary dynasty acquisition. The wiser move may be to try to buy-low on Lance and for the right price, I wouldn't knock it. Going for Purdy is an 4D chess, 1000 IQ sort of move where you're zigging when everyone else zags. Since I'm not willing to pay the price for Lance in a trade, I'm taking a chance on the rookie. Purdy is an afterthought, even now. All the YouTube highlight clips in the world can't justify really believing Purdy is something special. For now, Purdy is the backup behind Jimmy Garoppolo, who has again proven he isn’t the right fit for what the 49ers need.
Jimmy G will be a free agent next year and this bet on Purdy is a “you never know” move that should cost next to nothing. If your roster is deep enough, it makes perfect sense (to handcuff) if you have Lance.
Man, how good would it feel to have Purdy right now cause you handcuffed him to Lance. Granted, I’d rather have any quarterback in the top 10 in scoring rather than a couple unknown commodities. But sometimes it feels good to just make a call when little else is working out for your team. With all that said, like I wrote about Mike White last season, I’m only interested in Purdy or White unless they trigger the Tom Brady Exception, aka win a Super Bowl. Both Purdy and White will be backups next year unless they win a Super Bowl. Zach Wilson makes too much money and the Jets invested too much draft capital to stick a fork in ’em entirely. Same deal with Lance. There will be quarterback drama all through the offseason for both but the incumbents are the favorites now and eight months from now. If someone wants to give away Purdy, I’ll take him but I’m not giving up much for White or Purdy. Maybe they pan out, maybe they don’t. But I only pay full price for guys like Hurts. Not third-string washouts who play well cause defenses don’t have any tape on them.
Price check: 2023 4th
Superflex: 2023 3rd
Win-now: Hold/Sell to overpayers
Rebuild: Hold/Sell to overpayers