Analyzing the player props to target when the 49ers face the Titans in a Thursday Night Football matchup with major playoff implications.
The third-place 49ers (8-6) head east to face the AFC South-leading Titans (9-5) for Thursday Night Football.
San Francisco 49ers (8-6) at Tennessee Titans (9-5)
- Moneyline: San Francisco (-188) | Tennessee (+155)
- Spread: San Francisco -3.5 (-110) | Tennessee +3.5 (-110)
- Total: 44 - Over (-110) | Under (-110)
- Game Info: Dec. 23, 2021 | 8:20 p.m. ET | NFL Network
Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
Tennessee is coming off a tough loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday and will be looking to rebound against a San Francisco team looking to extend its win streak to three.
The Titans have had a tough go of it lately. After losing Derrick Henry, they also lost AJ Brown and Julio Jones to IR. Jones returned last week only to leave the game, but the good news is Brown has been designated to return and has the potential to play Thursday. The Titans need all the help they can get with the Colts just a game back.
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Tennessee’s offense has been lackluster since losing Henry. The Titans have failed to score more than 28 points in a game since losing their star running back in Week 8, and are averaging just 15.3 points per game across their last three games.
San Francisco, meanwhile, is trending in the opposite direction. Even without Eli Mitchell, the 49ers are continuing to find success. San Francisco has learned how to use Deebo Samuel in any way possible to score points, Brandon Aiyuk has finally been allowed back into Kyle Shanahan’s circle of trust and a healthy George Kittle is almost unstoppable. Meanwhile, the often-maligned Jimmy Garoppolo has had a QB ranking of 90-plus in his last eight games. Maybe he isn’t so bad after all. San Francisco is averaging 25.7 points per game, and 26.7 points per game across the past three.
The Titans are middle of the pack defensively, allowing 22.1 points per game. Most of those points have come through the air, as their run defense is stout. Tennessee has allowed an average of just 86.9 rushing yards per game, second only to Baltimore. I’m guessing this is a week we see Deebo used as more of a WR than a RB.
Conversely, San Francisco has been stronger against the pass than the run. They’ve allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards per game to opponents this season and an average of 22.4 points scored per game. Across the last four, however, the 49ers have allowed the eighth-most passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Defensively, these teams are pretty evenly matched. Offensively, San Francisco is trending in the better direction. But on a short week as home dogs and with a lot to play for, I am taking Tennessee and the points. Even if the Titans are missing weapons, I think they can keep it close. If Brown plays, I believe the Titans can even win. Plus, maybe—just maybe—we get a Jones sighting for fantasy managers needing a miracle.
The Pick: Titans +3.5, Over 44.5
PLAYER PROPS TO TARGET
Deebo Samuel anytime TD (+110)
I have no idea why we are getting plus-money for Deebo here, but I’m not complaining! One thing San Francisco has figured out: winning involves getting the ball in the hands of Samuel. He now has six total touchdowns in his last five games played. It’s no coincidence they won each of those five games. Deebo gets it done either on the ground or through the air to make it six games in a row Thursday night.
Ryan Tannehill over 15.5 rushing yards (-120)
Ryan Tannehill anytime touchdown (+310)
The Titans need to win this one and Tannehill will do everything he can to secure a win. Tannehill has exceeded this prop in his past three games and has seven rushing touchdowns this season, four of which came in his last six games played. Tannehill should continue to use his mobility while working with fewer playmakers.
The 49ers have allowed the third-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks and the second-most four rushing touchdowns (four).
Brandon Aiyuk over 48.5 receiving yards (-115)
San Francisco could have trouble getting things moving on the ground, and that means Jimmy G will have to air it out to Aiyuk, Samuel and Kittle. Aiyuk has exceeded this prop in five of his last seven games, and I think he bounces back from his poor performance last week against the Falcons.
D’onta Foreman over 50.5 rushing yards (-115)
Foreman has taken over the lead role in this backfield, and I think he should have no problem clearing this. The Niners' run defense is pretty good, but they still have allowed an average of 77 yards per game to opposing back. Foreman can get to 51.
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