Week 2 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet: Jared Will Go Goff

Sep 16, 2022

You probably don't hear this often but I like Jared Goff this week.

Knowing when to pivot away from a player is one of the many struggles managers face in fantasy football. Especially in these early weeks of the season when every bad game by one of your drafted players feels like a betrayal. You scream, "You were the chosen one!" after you see Elijah Mitchell scored 4.1 points and will be out for about two months with an MCL sprain.

Making these decisions more difficult is the fact that the waiver wire options aren't that great either -- that's why they're available in the first place. For example, if you have Patriots TE Hunter Henry, do you cut him loose after he posted two receptions on three targets for 20 yards in Week 1? Well, the reality is it happened to Henry on occasion last season as well. In 2021, he had four games with fewer than five PPR points. That's the life of a mid-tier tight end. Can you stomach it for a full season or will you even have the confidence in that player to start him? I had Devin Duvernay on two teams and I cut him in both before the season even started because in my gut, I don't really trust him. That looks like a bad decision after one game, so we'll see if my gut knows what the heck it's talking about.

But in replacing a player like Henry, you may have considered a fringe, low-end TE2 coming into the season like Gerald Everett, who has now strung together two good games after he posted 6-71 in Week 2 (13.1 pts) and 3-54-1 in Week 1 (14.4 pts). Or maybe you're especially bold and pursue O.J. Howard or Taysom Hill, two players not expected to be much of a fantasy factor heading into the season.

In the end, it's O.K. to chase points, but you should only be sacrificing the last spot or two on your bench to pursue pie-in-the-sky upside after Week 1. Part of mitigating risk is not taking on a bunch of it with multiple add/drops every week. Focus on finding one player to address a need. We've got a long four months ahead of us.

So in the Week 2 cheat sheet, I again don't want to spend much time focusing on the marquee fantasy players across the league, and instead I want to focus on borderline players who are either at the end of your bench or near the top of a 12-team league's waiver wire.

1. Jared Goff? Yes, Jared Goff

To me, a lot of what makes a good quarterback is efficiency and there are a few ways that manifests itself. It includes completion percentage, an ability to quickly make reads, identify the blitz and find the open man, etc. One of Goff's strengths at his peak four or five years ago—and we forget he finished as a top 10 fantasy QB in 2017 and 2018—was his ability to minimize glaring mistakes and keep drives alive. When Goff struggled, so did his offense's third-down conversion rate. In 2017, the Rams converted third downs at 40.8% (10th, Goff finishes QB8), 43.3% (eighth, Goff QB9) in 2018, 39.9% (16th, Goff QB15) in 2019, 41.4% (14th, QB15) in 2020.

No, I haven't cracked the code to finding value at the quarterback position by looking up third-down conversions. It's just for a quarterback that doesn't have a flashy arm like Patrick Mahomes and can't deliver miraculous runs like Lamar Jackson, a quarterback's value is tied to his offensive supporting cast. The better they do, the easier the job is for him.

In 2021, his first year in Detroit, the Lions were 31st in third-down conversions. The sample sizes don't get any smaller than one game but after Week 1, the Lions have converted 64.3%, sitting pretty at second in the league. I'm willing to bet this has more to do with his supporting cast, rather than Goff's God-given talent. In Week 2, Goff has a juicy matchup against the Washington Commanders and they rank 31st in rush DVOA and 17th in pass DVOA. Goff should be able to draft in the wake behind D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams in a plus matchup. If you already need a streaming option or want to take a small risk with your QB2 spot in a superflex, this is the week to give Goff a chance.

2. Tyler Allgeier Bounce-Back

Atlanta ran the ball 38 times for 201 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 against the Saints. That should've been made a bigger deal and I'm interested to see how they fare in Week 2 against the Rams. The game script narrative says the Rams are going to come out with something to prove and maybe even jump out to a big early lead.

What struck me, though, is the game plan of the Falcons offense. They were using the pistol, there were a lot QB rollouts to move the pocket, pre-determined QB runs and it was a bit all over the place. Marcus Mariota is not Matt Ryan and that was evident in this game. I'm looking forward to how they'll approach the Rams, who boast Aaron Donald, Bobby Wagner and Jalen Ramsey. I understand the enthusiasm around Cordarrelle Patterson, but I believe Damien Williams is still the starter when he gets healthy and rookie Tyler Allgeier may be forced into a larger role in Week 2 because of Williams's likely absence.

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While the Rams on paper should win this game with ease—they are the defending Super Bowl champs, after all—I'm not so convinced of that. The Saints have a very good defense as well and they really didn't have many answers for Atlanta until the final quarter.

"But it's the Falcons against the Rams! C'mon! Atlanta has no chance!"

No, you're probably right. But sometimes not having much tape of an offense can work in their favor. The Falcons seem to be using this to their advantage, at least after one game. It may be kitsch, the NFL offense equivalent of sticking your tongue out at your opponent. Because Atlanta seems willing to use every formation, pre-snap motion and trick in the book to keep a defense off-balance. I'm just saying I want to see more and if he's active in Week 2, I think Allgeier is the play.

3. My Week 2 Friggin' Bums

Every week, I'll highlight eight players (two at each position) that I like who are rostered in less than 50% of Yahoo leagues. You can think of them as desperation plays or salary punts in DFS contests.