Best bets and analysis for Saturday’s No. 22 Wake Forest-No. 23 Florida State, Illinois-Wisconsin and Virginia-Duke games.
Week 5 of college football features five games between ranked teams.
The slate is highlighted by No. 2 Alabama as a 17-point favorite over No. 20 Arkansas and No. 5 Clemson as a 6.5-point favorite over No. 10 NC State. The rest of the top five includes No. 1 Georgia (-28), No. 3 Ohio State (-41) and No. 4 Michigan (-11) all heavily favored to remain undefeated this Saturday.
Georgia (+175), Alabama (+200) and Ohio State (+250) all remain overwhelming favorites in the college football championship futures market at SI Sportsbook. The next closest teams, Clemson and No. 6 USC, check in well behind at +1400 odds.
Respected money information posted its third consecutive winning week and now boast a solid 6-3-1 against the spread (ATS) record over the last 10 plays. In Week 5, my information from Vegas has three investment opportunities bettors should target. Let’s dive into what’s on tap for Saturday.
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Illinois (3-1; 3-1 ATS) vs. Wisconsin (2-2; 2-2 ATS)
Spread: Illinois +7 (-118) | Wisconsin -7 (-110)
Moneyline: ILL (+220) | WIS (-333)
Total: 43.5 – Over (-118) | Under (-110)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: ILL 41% | WIS 59%
Game Info: Oct. 1, 2022 | 12 p.m. ET | BTN
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has ticked down since opening with Wisconsin as a 7.5-point home favorite against Illinois to the Badgers now with only a seven-point demand.
One of the top headlines for this Big Ten showdown is Bret Bielema’s return to Wisconsin. Bielema coached the Badgers from 2006-12 and posted a 68-24 record.
In his return to Madison, Bielema comes armed with an Illini squad that is 23 seconds away from being undefeated. Since suffering a 23-20 loss at Indiana in their first road game on Sept. 2, the Illini have responded with two straight-up (SU) and ATS home wins over Virginia and Chattanooga.
Illinois has outscored opponents 113-32 through the first four games thanks to a well-balanced offense. Senior quarterback Tommy Devito owns a 9:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio, while undefined leads a potent rushing attack. The junior back is averaging 151 rushing yards per game and has four total touchdowns.
On the flip side, Wisconsin will attempt to rebound from a 52-21 drubbing at Ohio State as a 19-point road underdog. The Badgers were gashed for 258 on the ground by the Buckeyes and face an Illinois rushing attack that is averaging 209 yards per game. Wisconsin earned expected wins over Illinois State and New Mexico State but suffered two losses to tougher foes in Washington State and Ohio State.
Despite the fact that Illinois is 1-11 SU in its last 12 visits to Wisconsin, respected money in Vegas is grabbing the points with an Illini squad that is only allowing eight points per game, while averaging 28.3 points per game on offense. Bielema will have the Illini well prepared for his return to Camp Randall.
BET: Illinois +7 (-118)
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No. 22 Wake Forest (3-1; 3-1 ATS) vs. No. 23 Florida State (4-0; 3-1 ATS)
Spread: Wake Forest +7 (-118) | Florida State -7 (-110)
Moneyline: WAKE (+188) | FSU (-250)
Total: 64 – Over (-110) | Under (-118)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: WAKE 57% | FSU 43%
Game Info: Oct. 1, 2022 | 3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
One of Week 5’s best games features two ranked ACC foes meeting in Tallahassee. The line has bounced around since opening with No. 23 Florida State as a 6.5-point home favorite against No. 22 Wake Forest before settling with the Seminoles as seven-point home favorites at SI Sportsbook.
The Seminoles are undefeated after beating Duquesne, LSU, Louisville and Boston College. Quarterback Jordan Travis has been sensational this season. The junior has improved his accuracy (65.9%), forcing defenses to respect the passing game which opens more space for the running game. Florida State leads the ACC with an impressive 226.8 rushing yards per game, while adding 12 rushing touchdowns.
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Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are rebound from last week’s 51-45 overtime loss against Clemson as eight-point home underdogs. Wake Forest is led by quarterback Sam Hartman, who has thrown for 300-plus yards and three-plus touchdowns in all three of his starts. The fifth-year signal-caller has been sensational since being forced to miss the season opener against VMI due to blood clots, throwing for the fifth-most touchdowns in the country.
Wake Forest has won the past two matchups against Florida State and has a plethora of weapons in the passing game, led by wideouts A.T. Perry and Jahmal Banks and tight end Blake Whiteheart, who have combined for 10 of the team’s 16 receiving touchdowns. Respected money is grabbing the full touchdown of points in a game that could come to the final minutes.
BET: Wake Forest +7 (-118)
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Virginia (2-2; 1-3 ATS) vs. Duke (3-1; 2-2 ATS)
Spread: UVA +2.5 (-110) | DUKE -2.5 (-118)
Moneyline: UVA (+115) | DUKE (-150)
Total: 51.5 – Over (-110) | Under (-118)
Public (Spread) Betting Percentages: UVA 35% | DUKE 65%
Game Info: Oct. 1, 2022 | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN3
Editor’s Note - Odds are subject to change.
The line has risen since opening with Duke as a 1.5-point home favorite against Virginia to the Blue Devils now with a 2.5-point demand.
Duke is off to a 3-1 start and will try to break a seven-game losing streak to Virginia. After earning wins over Temple, Northwestern and North Carolina A&T, the Blue Devils suffered their first loss of the season last week at Kansas as seven-point road underdogs. Sophomore quarterback Riley Leonard, who is guiding the ACC’s third-best offense (461 yards per game), will need to continue to be effective both on the ground and in the air against the Cavaliers.
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Virginia ownS a 7-0 SU and ATS streak over Duke but has been inconsistent thus far. The lack of continuity on the offensive side of the ball can be attributed to the struggles of quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who has more interceptions (four) than touchdown passes (three). The inconsistency is more prevalent in road games as Armstrong only completed 45.3% of his passes in losses at Illinois and Syracuse.
Besides having home-field advantage, the Blue Devils should also have an advantage on the field in the opening 30 minutes. Virginia leading tackler Nick Jackson will miss the first half as a result of a targeting penalty last week against Syracuse. Respected money believes Leonard and company will get off to a hot start, leading to a victory over Virginia for the first time since 2014.
BET: Duke -2.5 (-118)
2022 SI Betting NCAA Football: 8-9-1 ATS
2021 SI Betting NCAA Football: 14-12 ATS
2020 SI Betting NCAA Football: 32-21 ATS
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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