SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo spoke to several of the biggest sportsbooks in the U.S. on how this protocol could impact the college football betting market.
Earlier today, Sports Illustrated’s Ross Dellenger obtained a copy of the July 8 document from the Power 5 detailing minimum standards for testing & response protocols:
“College football players who test positive for COVID-19 this fall will be required to miss at least 10 days of competition, and that number is even higher—a full two weeks—for those who are found to have had contact with a person who tested positive.”
The document has yet to be finalized, but it is expected to be released in the near future by the Power 5 and the NCAA, which could have far reaching effects on the world of sports betting come the fall.
Dellinger also uncovered the following bits of information within the document.
“The document details several conditions that would result in a school discontinuing competition and/or complete seasons: 1) lack of ability to isolate new positive cases or quarantine high-contact risk cases on campus; 2) inability to perform weekly testing; 3) campus-wide or local community test rates that are considered unsafe by local public health officials; 4) inability to perform adequate contact tracing; 5) local public health officials state that there is an inability for the hospital infrastructure to accommodate a surge in COVID-related hospitalizations.”
With the new protocols potentially having massive ramifications on the college football betting market, I reached out to several of the biggest sportsbooks in the country with the intent on learning the answer to the following question. How would this news affect how oddsmakers approach the NCAA fall betting season?
The Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas is one of the largest sportsbooks in the country, and according to John Murray, Director of Race & Sports, social media could play a pivotal role; especially announcements involving quarterbacks.
"It just means we have to watch the injury reports and scan Twitter more diligently than ever before...
We are used to it. NBA players seem to sit out games at the last second all the time for no apparent reason and we are used to watching for that.
In college football we will have to keep an eye out for positive tests results for starting QBs. Those could have a major impact on both the point spread and total."
Patrick Eichner, Director of Communications at PointsBet Sportsbook, believes due to the uncertainty, bettors could be looking at perhaps more value on favorites in futures markets.
“Given the recent news of college football players being required to miss at least 10 days of competition after testing positive for COVID-19, operators will have to make slight adjustments in the oddsmaking process. On futures, expect to see a bit more randomness baked in, i.e. favorites being priced a bit longer than usual.”
In terms of per-game wagering, Eichner does not envision much to change other than sportsbooks being quicker than usual to suspend wagering if there is even a “hint” of COVID-19 playing a role for the upcoming week’s games.
“From a game-to-game standpoint, don’t expect much to change aside from operators being a bit quicker than usual to suspend betting and re-price in wake of news...
That said, week-to-week bookmaking on college football is always heavily impacted by injuries, so it won’t be a massive change.”
Dave Sharapan, Risk Supervisor at CG Technologies believes that with no definitive answers the situation will be challenging to handle going forward.
"For now, everything with the virus (testing, games being played, players or coaches testing positive, etc) is unknown. Things are happening in real time, and nobody has definitive answers or solutions.
As for how it affects odds and wagers, we are constantly monitoring the situation and doing our best to adjust as well. It's extremely challenging to do things now that will take effect for games that may or may not happen in two months. Just feels like a wait and see holding pattern, and like everyone else, there are no real answers."
No matter the case, college sports face unique circumstances that professional leagues will not because they can not expect such a vast amount of athletes to “live in a bubble." With that limitation, it is safe to expect that the pandemic will have far reaching effects on the collegiate sports betting landscape in the fall.