Half of the preseason top 10 has already lost, while others have yet to even take the court.
We're one week into the 2020–21 men's college basketball season, and we've already seen half of the preseason AP top 10 lose, a spate of game cancellations and a number of programs that have yet to even take the court. The delayed start to the season meant things kicked into high gear immediately this year, with not just the Champions Classic headlining opening week, but also the Maui Invitational and other traditional Thanksgiving tournaments that have been altered and/or relocated due to COVID-19.
What have we learned about this young season? SI runs down the highlights and sets the stage for a packed week ahead in the sport.
Five takeaways from opening week
Spoiler alert: Young, talented teams will take time to grow
This is true every year in college basketball (unless, of course, you're the Zion Williamson Duke team), but it may be especially so in 2020. After an offseason interrupted by the pandemic forced teams to lose out on some of their traditional spring and summer workouts that would've been spent in the program weight room and on getting freshmen up to speed, it shouldn't be surprising that inexperienced groups like Kentucky and Duke—Tuesday night's Champions Classic losers—look disjointed and raw.
In a too-close-for-comfort win over Coppin State, the Blue Devils turned it over 22 times. The Wildcats, off to a 1–2 start for the first time under John Calipari, combined to shoot a ghastly 3 for 31 from three in back-to-back losses to Richmond and Kansas. We're not saying that by February, Duke will be top-10 in the country in turnover rate and Kentucky will be shooting 36% from three. But if there's ever a year where it's understandable to come out of the gate slow, it's this one. And that goes double for teams incorporating several new faces. So while it might be tempting to declare the Wildcats can't shoot or the Blue Devils' lineup doesn't mesh, let's hold back the hot takes for at least a little longer.
Game cancellations are going to be a continued reality
The college basketball schedule is already getting rapidly altered on the fly, which shouldn't be surprising given the state of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. Last week brought a number of cancellations due to positive cases or programs needing to temporarily shut down, leading to plenty of last-minute schedule shuffling and, at times, teams playing on little practice. San Francisco's upset of Virginia wasn't even on either team's schedule when the week began—the Cavaliers were supposed to play Florida before the Gators had to shut down.
As a result, don't be surprised if things are more chaotic this year with upsets and unexpected results. Games will be canceled, sometimes at the last minute. Opponents will be abruptly added, giving teams little time to scout. Teams will need to shut down for a week or two, only to turn around and have to play as soon as quarantine ends. In a world where we play college sports during a pandemic, this is all an inevitability. And it's magnified in an indoor sport like basketball, featuring much smaller rosters than football and where one positive case could knock out an entire team due to contact tracing.
Beware reading too much into a tiny sample size
It's natural to want to overreact to one game, especially when there's not much else to go on this early in the season. Already, we've seen multiple examples of narratives that looked strong one day faltering soon after. Take Virginia, which crushed Towson in its opener—shooting 15 for 29 from three—and spurred talk of its offensive woes of last season being solved. Forty-eight hours later, the Cavaliers scored just 60 points in a one-point loss to San Francisco, making only three shots from deep. Does that mean the Hoos are back to their old ways on offense? That seems unlikely, but we also might want to pump the brakes before assuming this is a top-10 offense.
It was a similar story for Indiana at this week's Maui Invitational. The unranked Hoosiers looked underrated during a 21-point win over Providence, scoring more points per possession than they did in all but six games last season. A day later, against Texas's stifling defense, they managed just 44 points (0.66 per possession—the program's lowest output in a game since 2003, per KenPom) in an abject offensive effort. Which is closer to the real Indiana? Check back in a month or two
Remember: Everyone hasn't played yet
While teams like Louisville and Xavier have already logged four games apiece, others—due to COVID impacts—have yet to play even one. Florida State, Florida, Tennessee, Oregon, Utah, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Cincinnati and Northwestern are among that list of programs, with varying times for when they might tip off for the first time. Several of those teams, including the Seminoles, Ducks, Gators and Wildcats, are scheduled for their first game on Wednesday—or one week after the season officially began. For others, the wait will be longer. It's once again a reminder that little about this college hoops season is normal.
Luka Garza is still a beast
The National Player of the Year favorite scored 26 points in 24 minutes in Iowa's opener vs. North Carolina Central, then poured in 41 in 29 minutes (including 36 in the first half) two days later against Southern. He missed four total shots from the floor in those games. Yes, the competition was down, but sheesh.
Three Teams Off to a Strong Start
1. Gonzaga: The Bulldogs' offense blitzed the Jayhawks on Thanksgiving, then ran away from Auburn the next day. This week, though, will be even tougher: a matchup with No. 11 West Virginia at the Jimmy V Classic on Wednesday followed by a game with No. 2 Baylor on Saturday, both in Indianapolis.
2. Richmond: The Spiders' marquee road win over Kentucky didn't come as a big surprise to those paying attention to Chris Mooney's program. This is a veteran group that was making a 2020 NCAA tournament push before March Madness was canceled, and it beat the Wildcats despite shooting 28% from three.
3. Michigan State: The Spartans were running Notre Dame off the court on Saturday before the score tightened to a 10-point margin at the end, and on Tuesday, Tom Izzo did something he'd never done in his illustrious career: beat Duke at Cameron Indoor.
Three Teams Who'd Like to Forget Their Start
1. Northern Iowa: An 0–3 start to the season is not how the Panthers imagined things going, especially since all three games were a great opportunity to pick up a win against a fellow promising mid-major (Western Kentucky, Saint Mary's and Utah State). Ben Jacobson scheduled tough this nonconference season—with games vs. Wisconsin and Richmond still to come—but at this point, Northern Iowa has to just hope the difficult start is preparation for Missouri Valley play.
2. Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are already 0–2 against in-state foes, losing a quadruple-overtime marathon to Georgia State last week before following it up with a home loss to Mercer. Now, Josh Pastner's team gets Kentucky in Atlanta on Sunday, with both teams looking to avoid their third loss of the season.
3. Georgetown: Things aren't getting any easier for Patrick Ewing at Georgetown. After a tumultuous 2019–20, the Hoyas are 1–1 after falling by seven at home to Navy as an 11-point favorite. It was the Midshipmen's first win over Georgetown since 1977.
Five Games We've Circled Over the Next Week
UConn vs. USC (Thurs., Dec. 3): Neither of these teams are ranked, but this late add in "Bubbleville" could be a good one. After needing overtime to get past Cal Baptist in their opener, the Trojans are coming off an impressive rout of BYU. This will be the first real test for the Huskies, who boast sophomore breakout candidate James Bouknight.
No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 2 Baylor (Sat., Dec. 5): What more can you ask for in December than the AP No. 1 vs. the AP No. 2 on a neutral court? This could be a fascinating battle; the Bears' defense was their calling card last season, but can they slow down Gonzaga enough to nab a top-tier win?
No. 12 Villanova at No. 19 Texas (Sun., Dec 6): The Longhorns have a chance to win the Maui Invitational on Wednesday before coming home to host the Wildcats, and they can reset their Big 12 expectations in the process. Jay Wright's team entered 2020–21 with high expectations but has been a bit shaky to open the season, including an overtime loss to Virginia Tech. Will Villanova be able to solve Texas's defense?
No. 14 North Carolina at No. 3 Iowa (Tues. Dec. 8): The Hawkeyes' juggernaut offense hosts a Tar Heels team that may or may not be coming off a Maui Invitational championship. UNC has the bodies and depth in the paint (the likes of Garrison Brooks, Armando Bacot and Day'Ron Sharpe) to try to stymie Garza, but its young Caleb Love/RJ Davis backcourt will have its hands full with Iowa's perimeter weapons.
No. 8 Illinois at No. 6 Duke (Tues., Dec. 8): The Illini believe their basketball program is back, and what better way to prove that than by winning at Cameron Indoor? On the flip side, it's a big opportunity for the Blue Devils to put away the sour taste of Tuesday night's loss to Michigan State. After having their streak of 150 straight nonconference home wins snapped a year ago, could Duke really lose two of them within a week this season?