New scenery and a familiar coach (sort of) could be the formula for the fallen QB’s revival.
Baker Mayfield and Sean McVay have reunited, having spent one (now fortunate, it seems) flight together en route to the NFL scouting combine back in 2018. Mayfield was on his way to being the No. 1 pick in the draft, and McVay was on his way to a first Super Bowl appearance the following season.
While their careers certainly diverged from that point, it shouldn’t change the fact that their flight together, and whatever relationship formed during that moment, could end up having an effect on the near future of the NFL.
Before we get there, let’s talk for a moment about the waiver claims process, the avenue by which Mayfield found himself in Los Angeles this week preparing to potentially start a football game Thursday. The Rams were the only team that placed a claim for Mayfield, which is true, but they were also third in the waiver order, thanks to their 3–9 record, with 29 teams behind them. They also, through various leaks, made it clear they were interested in claiming Mayfield (or, at the very least, hid their intentions poorly). If another team behind Los Angeles wanted to do it, they were likely wondering what the point was.
Bob Donnan/USA TODAY Sports
In short, we shouldn’t take the lone claim as evidence that Mayfield is unwanted. We should interpret it as other teams not wanting to deal with the public relations fallout if they had also put in a claim for Mayfield and not gotten him. Imagine, for example, if you were the 49ers and you had just put a great deal of energy pouring your confidence into Brock Purdy for a playoff run. Do you want to explain to him a few days later that you also tried to replace him? This is true for any coach or general manager who wouldn’t feel like answering questions about what their interest in Mayfield meant for the remainder of the season and not even having the player to show for it.
This is important to keep in mind when considering what might happen over the next few weeks. We’re not saying that McVay is going to turn Mayfield into the player he was always meant to be in a matter of weeks. That is a ridiculous assumption for multiple reasons. It’s the end of the year; this will be a truncated, crash course into a complex playbook; most of the Rams’ best players are on injured reserve; and some quarterbacks are simply not a fit in the McVay system but do perform better elsewhere (Jared Goff, for example, seems to have matured in Detroit).
But if McVay and Mayfield can play some stable football together, shifting the perception of Mayfield from a bad impression he’s left on evaluators after an injury-plagued 2021 season and a ’22 spent with the free-falling Panthers to a more neutral one, he could easily make a play for a starting job somewhere in ’23.
Think for a moment about how many quarterback jobs in the NFL are etched in stone for next year: the Bills, Dolphins, Chiefs, Chargers, Browns, Jaguars, Eagles, Cowboys, Cardinals, Rams, Vikings, Packers and Bears.
This year, there are nine quarterbacks with an EPA (expected points added) and CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) composite per down of 0.1 or better. Last year, there were 15 quarterbacks. The year before that, there were 22. We are not exactly in a quarterback drought, but we are not, in any way, overstuffed at the position. We are also not sitting on an obvious abundance of rookies, at least not a 2018 draft-style surplus that would inject us with four or five potential starters in a single season.
Additionally, we’re watching the likes of Taylor Heinicke stick around as a slightly-above-replacement-level type of player. Geno Smith will be playing for many multiples of his current $3.5 million salary next year, either with the Seahawks or with someone else. Andy Dalton is still starting. Experience matters in times like these. The ability to simply hang around and find the right system and supporting cast matters in times like these.
Given all of that, why not Mayfield? While this may sound like a sunny look into the future, it’s more of a sober look at what the NFL has become. There are McVay assistants spread throughout the league. There is a rising desperation for even mid-level quarterback play. At his best, Mayfield was a top-12 player at the position. McVay might not get Mayfield there, but he could start pointing him in the right direction.
In that way, the remainder of the Rams’ slate is worth watching. We cannot say for certain that this is the start of Mayfield’s becoming the next Geno Smith, but we can say that a once-promising career was placed on life support. That’s not nothing.