A closer look at each WNBA playoff series and a parlay bet worth an investment.
The action on the WNBA hardwood heats up on Wednesday evening, with eight teams competing for the coveted league hardware. Following a regular season that witnessed the Las Vegas Aces and defending WNBA champion Chicago Sky finish with identical 26-10 records, bettors find the top four seeds listed at less than odds of 6/1 in the futures market. Las Vegas lands as the betting favorites to win the WNBA title at odds of +175, followed closely by Chicago at +200.
The WNBA postseason finds the eight playoff teams squaring off in best-of-three series in the first round, rewarding the top seeds with a major advantage. The top four seeds will host the first two games of each series.
As the playoffs advance deeper, teams compete in an expanded five-game series, taking part in a more traditional home/road format (2-2-1).
Let's take a deeper look at each of the four WNBA series matchups!
Kamil Krzaczynski/USA TODAY Sports
WNBA Playoff Series Odds
No. 7 New York Liberty (+335) vs. No. 2 Chicago Sky (-410)
2022 Records: New York: SU: 16-20 / ATS 18-20-1
2022 Records: Chicago: SU: 26-10 / ATS: 17-18-1
Head-to-head: Chicago 3-1 SU / New York 2-1-1 ATS
Futures: New York +6600 / Chicago +200
The Sky earned the No. 2 seed and are looking to become the first team since the Los Angeles Sparks back in 2001-2002 to repeat as champions. This season Chicago is led by leading scorer Kahleah Copper (15.7 ppg) and Candace Parker (13.2 ppg, 8.6 rpg).
The veteran club took three out of four from New York in the regular season, with the Liberty owning a profitable 2-1-1 against the spread (ATS) mark. Three of the last four games were decided by an average winning margin of 4.3 points per game while surpassing the game total in two of the four contests with an average of 160.0 points per game. In the first matchup of the season back in May, Chicago beat New York by 33 points as 5-point road favorites.
In Game 1, the Sky are 7.5-point home favorites, with the total sitting at 164. Despite winning 26 games, Chicago was difficult for bettors to trust over the last month of the season, posting a pedestrian 5-5 straight-up (SU) record combined with a dismal 3-6-1 ATS mark. On the flip side, New York grabbed the No. 7 seed thanks to a solid 7-3 record down the stretch, which coincided with a slightly profitable 5-4-1 ATS mark.
Charles Rex Arbogast/AP
No. 8 Phoenix Mercury (+1200) vs. No. 1 Las Vegas Aces (-2075)
2022 Records: Phoenix: SU: 15-21 / ATS: 15-20-1
2022 Records: Las Vegas: SU: 26-10 / ATS: 18-18
Head-to-head: Las Vegas 3-0 SU / Las Vegas 3-0 ATS
Futures: Phoenix +8000 / Las Vegas +175
Despite finishing with the same record as the Sky, the Aces earned the top overall seed in the playoffs thanks to winning the season series (2-1) with Chicago. Las Vegas is poised to win the WNBA Championship for the first time in franchise history, thanks to a roster that consists of dominant forward A'Ja Wilson (19.5 ppg; 9.4 rpg) and leading scorer Kelsey Plum (20.2 ppg).
Las Vegas swept the No. 8 seed Mercury this season by an average of 16.7 points per game. The Aces, who also went 3-0 ATS in each victory, averaged 178.0 points per game with the Mercury, surpassing the posted totals in two of the three games.
In Game 1, the Aces are 14.5-point home favorites, with the total sitting at 167.5. Oddsmakers demand that bettors who want to back Las Vegas lay the wood as the 14.5-point spread is the highest game line between the two clubs this season. While closing out the regular season with a record of 8-2 in their final 10 games, the Aces rewarded bettors by going 7-3 ATS over that stretch.
No. 6 Dallas Wings (+600) vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun (-825)
2022 Records: Dallas: SU: 18-18 / ATS: 21-14-1
2022 Records: Connecticut: SU: 25-11 / ATS: 21-15
Head-to-head: Dallas 2-1 SU / Dallas 2-1 ATS
Futures: Dallas +3500 / Connecticut +350
Bettors find No.6 seed Dallas as the biggest underdog (+600) of the first round because they will be without Arike Ogunbowale (19.7 ppg). The team's leading scorer underwent abdominal surgery last week.
Despite being with the services of their star guard, the Wings enter the matchup against Connecticut with confidence after winning two of the three games with the Sun in the regular season. Underdogs in all three games, the Wings split their two home games against Connecticut while earning an 82-71 road win at Mohegan Sun Arena on July 5. The two teams averaged 160.7 points per contest this season, exceeding the posted game total in two of the three games.
As expected, the underdog trend continues in the postseason for the Wings as in Game 1 the Suns are 10.5-point home favorites with the total sitting at 162.5. Due to the absence of Ogunbowale, bettors now find the largest game spread between the two clubs this season which previously demanded Sun backers only lay an average of 7.2 points per game. Since July 2022, Connecticut has been the best team in the league for bettors to back, owning a 9-1 ATS record.
AP Photo/Ted S. Warren
No. 5 Washington Mystics (+145) vs. No. 4 Seattle Storm (-165)
2022 Records: Washington: SU: 22-14 / ATS: 21-15
2022 Records: Seattle: SU: 22-14 / ATS: 18-18
Head-to-head: Seattle 2-1 SU / Seattle 2-1 ATS
Futures: Washington +800 / Seattle +550
There is no shock here as the two of the most evenly matched clubs find the tightest betting odds of any series in the opening round. Seattle and Washington, who finished with identical 22-14 records, did find a disparity in overall betting records. The Mystics finished with the second-best ATS record (21-15) in the WNBA in the regular season.
The Storm thrived in the role of underdog against Washington this season, winning two of the three games when oddsmakers placed plus-odds on the club. Despite only averaging 156.0 points per game, both teams found a way to surpass the game total in two of the three games. A deeper dive reveals that over the last two seasons, the Storm have won five of six meetings against the Mystics.
In Game 1, the Storm are 3.5-point home favorites, with the total sitting at 158.5.
Frankie’s Betting Breakdown
There is no way any bettor should consider investing in the favorites in the form of straight bets at these prohibitive odds. Due to the massive home court advantage of playing the first two games at home, it is simply too hard to fade the top seeds in any of the matchups. Instead, let's flip the odds in our favor and play all four home teams as a series parlay.
WNBA PLAYOFF SERIES PARLAY
Sky -410
Aces -2075
Sun -825
Storm -165
Potential Payout Odds: +135 (One unit)
Frankie Taddeo is a successful high-stakes fantasy football player who created the first-ever DFS program ever offered in a Las Vegas sportsbook. Frankie is SI Betting's Senior Analyst and provides his significant experience and resources in the sports betting scene. You can follow Frankie on Twitter @Frankie_Fantasy for his latest betting and fantasy insights from Las Vegas.
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