Who will win it all in Qatar? Now that the quarterfinal field is set, our panel takes another crack at predicting the outcome for the World Cup.
Just like that, the 2022 World Cup is down to its final eight teams, and what a quarterfinal field it is.
There are four previous champions represented, including the most recent one, which is seeking to do something no men’s team has achieved in six decades. There’s the party-crasher, Morocco, fresh off an elimination of Spain. And there are the GOATs new and old—even if Cristiano Ronaldo’s role with Portugal has been thrown into a world of uncertainty.
Naturally, our prognostications of the event from the week preceding it have proven to be ... let’s go with mixed. While all members of our expert panel had either Brazil or Argentina emerging from one side of the bracket (bold calls, truly), the other half has been where some mulligans are needed. Fortunately, we set the rules, so the mulligans have been granted. We’ve taken another crack at predicting the future, picking the games from Friday’s quarterfinals on down to the Dec. 18 final in Lusail.
You can refer back to our previous picks here and poke fun as you’d like. As for our revised selections:
AVI CREDITOR
ORIGINAL FINAL FOUR
Semifinals: Brazil over Argentina; Germany over Denmark
Final: Brazil over Germany
NEW PICKS
Quarterfinals: Brazil over Croatia; Argentina over Netherlands; Portugal over Morocco; France over England
Semifinals: Brazil over Argentina; France over Portugal
Final: Brazil over France
Well, half of the original picks still look good. I was a little too bullish on Das Re-Reboot and the momentum Denmark had appeared to generate last summer, while clearly underestimating Croatia’s staying power and the will of the Atlas Lions. I’ll stick with the South American SuperClásico semifinal on that side of the bracket and opt for a Euro 2016 final rematch on the other. France, despite everything going against it in the run-up to the competition, has that look again (especially Kylian Mbappé), while, Portugal (underestimating Morocco at my own peril—again) has the best draw of anyone left and some freedom now that Fernando Santos has put his stamp on Cristiano Ronaldo’s role in this competition. It all filters into a final for the ages: Brazil going for its sixth title and France aiming to become the first repeat champion in 60 years.
Everyone still gets the Ronaldo-Messi last-weekend World Cup sendoff they’re craving—just in the third-place game.
Mike Egerton/PA Images/Imago Images
ANDREW GASTELUM
ORIGINAL FINAL FOUR
Semifinals: Brazil over Netherlands; France over Belgium
Final: Brazil over France
NEW PICKS
Quarterfinals: Brazil over Croatia; Netherlands over Argentina; Portugal over Morocco; France over England
Semifinals: Brazil over Netherlands; France over Portugal
Final: France over Brazil
Apart from Belgium’s collapse, three out of four of my original semifinalists are still in the mix—and I still feel as strongly about the Netherlands beating Argentina in the quarterfinals as I did before the tournament. The Dutch look incredibly organized behind Louis van Gaal’s tactical brilliance, and the return of Memphis Depay has added some bite to the Oranje attack that was missing in the group stage. Portugal, too, has looked like a well-balanced side that is finally able to combine its usual firepower in attack with a stalwart defense, but I can’t see the Dutch or Portuguese getting past the giants they will meet in semifinals.
But while I originally picked Brazil to beat France in the final, Les Bleus have looked unstoppable when they have their first team on the pitch, and I feel that France presents a lot more problems for Brazil than the other way around. I initially wasn’t sure about how France would be able to deal with the pressure of defending its title, but Didier Deschamps has done an incredible job of refreshing the squad with new, hungry talent rather than relying solely on the 2018 stars. I see France’s depth and well-oiled attack (and Mbappé’s brilliance) as being the differences that will put an end to Brazil’s hopes of a sixth World Cup star above its crest, and crown France as back-to-back champs.
MARCUS KRUM
ORIGINAL FINAL FOUR
Semifinals: Argentina over Brazil; Belgium over Denmark
Final: Argentina over Belgium
NEW PICKS
Quarterfinals: Brazil over Croatia; Argentina over Netherlands; Portugal over Morocco; France over England
Semifinals: Argentina over Brazil; France over Portugal
Final: Argentina over France
Denmark won the hearts of fans around the world with its run to the 2020 Euro semifinal, then subsequently beat France twice this summer. The Danes looked ready to play the part of tournament darling once more in Qatar. They sure had me fooled. Three listless performances later, and Denmark was headed home with one goal and zero wins. My initial finalist, Belgium, looks primed for a rebuild as well after crashing out in the group stage.
With that half of the bracket a complete miss, we need a reevaluation of some of the world’s top teams that came into the tournament on poor form. I’m going to stick to my guns, even though they misfired quite a bit in the group stage. This still feels like anyone’s tournament to win. There’s not a team without flaws, but there also isn’t one remaining that hasn’t figured out how to disguise them. Lionel Messi and Argentina should have enough firepower to get past the Netherlands and stun Brazil in the ‘21 Copa América final rematch, while Mbappé and France overcome what is a pretty difficult draw to get back to the final. Messi powers Argentina to one final victory, showing the changing of the guard at Paris Saint-Germain (and in the sport as a whole) isn’t complete just yet.
Moritz Mueller/Imago Images
BRIAN STRAUS
ORIGINAL FINAL FOUR
Semifinals: Brazil over Argentina; Belgium over England
Final: Brazil over Belgium
NEW PICKS
Quarterfinals: Brazil over Croatia; Argentina over Netherlands; Portugal over Morocco; France over England
Semifinals: Brazil over Argentina; France over Portugal
Final: Brazil over France
So, Belgium. Oof. That didn’t go well. A prediction so bad, I should be disqualified from participating in future “expert” pieces. Any credibility accrued from picking France four years ago has vanished faster than a piece of garbage in a section of Japan supporters. In addition, I was wrong about Les Bleus. It felt like there were just too many injuries and too many distractions dragging on their title defense. They’d won one of six games heading into Qatar! And we all know France has been fragile in the past. But talent is talent and depth is depth. Mbappé has been unstoppable, while Antoine Griezmann, Ousmane Dembélé and Olivier Giroud have been even better than advertised. France should progress without too much trouble.
On the bracket’s other side, there’s no compelling reason to abandon the original picks. Brazil, when clicking, remains the most dangerous team in the tournament. Neymar is fit and Richarlison is seizing his moment. An epic grudge match against Messi and Argentina will embolden the Seleção to take earn a sixth star against the reigning champs and their historic tormenters.
Frank Hoermann/Sven Simon/Imago Images
JONATHAN WILSON
ORIGINAL FINAL FOUR
Semifinals: Argentina over Spain; Germany over France
Final: Argentina over Germany
NEW PICKS
Quarterfinals: Brazil over Croatia; Argentina over Netherlands; Portugal over Morocco; France over England
Semifinals: Brazil over Argentina; France over Portugal
Final: France over Brazil
I overestimated the chance of a French collapse similar to 2002 or ’10, and failed to take into account just how short of striking options Germany was. I didn’t expect Spain to be quite so toothless; I’d thought it was over that. Belgium was just as awful as I expected it to be, while Denmark was a big disappointment.
Brazil looks good, but I’m not sure about the back of its midfield against better opposition. Croatia will offer more of a threat than South Korea, did but Brazil should still be too strong. If Argentina’s passion overcomes Dutch ice in its quarterfinal, there could be a repeat of the famous last-16 game in 1990, when Argentina held out under intense pressure and won thanks to Diego Maradona’s brilliance and Claudio Caniggia’s finish.
On the other side of the draw, the prospect of Mbappé running at the ponderous heart of England’s defense means France probably just has the edge, while Fernando Santos should be able to temper the new-found attacking excellence of his post-Ronaldo Portugal enough to combat the threat of Moroccan counterattacks. France against Portugal is then a repeat of the 2006 semifinal and should have a similar result, French experience and nous telling in the end.
Both France and Brazil are excellent attacking sides, but France probably has the edge in midfield, which is why I have it to become the first side since Brazil in 1962 to retain its crown.