The best bet for World Series MVP isn't necessarily the odds-on favorite like Bryce Harper as there may be value in another contender.
With the 2022 World Series set to begin on Friday at 8:03 p.m. ET, the betting world has multiple areas of interest in the outcome. Jen Piacenti went through her thoughts on who would win the World Series earlier this week while adding insight into the Game 1 matchup. My endeavor lies in finding the best player to invest in to win the series MVP award. I know Jen has tickets to the Astros home games, and a fun prop would be her wearing the jersey of who she liked to win the MVP to the first matchup.
Bet on Phillies-Astros Game 1 at SI Sportsbook
Over the past 10 seasons, two pitchers (2014 Madison Bumgarner and 2019 Stephen Strasburg) have won the MVP award. They both had a 2-0 record. Bumgarner allowed one run over 21 innings with 17 strikeouts and a save. Strasburg posted a 2.57 ERA over 14 innings with 14 strikeouts. Here are the previous eight hitters that won the award and their stats:
- 2012 Pablo Sandoval (8-for-16 with three runs, three home runs, and four RBI)
- 2013 David Ortiz (11-for-16 with seven runs, two home runs, and six RBI)
- 2015 Salvador Perez (8-for-22 with three runs and two RBI)
- 2016 Ben Zobrist (10-for-28 with five runs and two RBI)
- 2017 George Springer (11-for-29 with eight runs, five home runs, and seven RBI)
- 2018 Steve Pearce (4-for-12 with five runs, three home runs, and eight RBI)
- 2020 Corey Seager (8-for-20 with seven runs, two home runs, five RBI, and one stolen base)
- 2021 Jorge Soler (6-for-20 with four runs, three home runs, and six RBI)
Here’s a look at the top contenders to win the award at SI Sportsbook:
When reviewing the MVP odds, seven of the top eight candidates play for the Houston Astros. The Phillies have had a magical run (9-2 with a 3.06 ERA and 107 strikeouts over 97 innings) in the playoffs. Their batters only hit .237 over 346 at-bats, leading to 57 runs, 16 home runs, 57 RBI, and two steals). Houston has yet to lose a game in the postseason (7-0 with a 1.88 ERA and 89 strikeouts over 72 innings). In their seven matchups, the Astros struggled to score runs (.227 over 255 at-bats with 31 runs, 12 home runs, 31 RBI, and two stolen bases). There is no doubt Philadelphia can bash with any team in baseball when in rhythm, but they can’t win without stellar pitching by their two aces (Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler).
Bryce Harper (+600)
Harper was a beast over his first 64 games (.318 with 49 runs, 15 home runs, 48 RBI, and nine steals over 242 at-bats), but a thumb injury cost him two months of the year. His bat offered minimal help over his final 35 games (.227/14/3/17/2 over 128 at-bats), but Harper has been impressive in the postseason (18-for-43 with 10 runs, five home runs, and 11 RBI).
Rhys Hoskins (+1,400)
Despite hitting .182 over 44 at-bats in the playoffs, Hoskins and his flyball swing path delivered five home runs and 11 RBI. He hit .237 over his final 211 at-bats in the regular season, with 28 runs, 10 home runs, and 31 RBI.
J.T. Realmuto (+1,400)
The Phillies’ best player after the All-Star break was Realmuto. He hit an impressive .319 over 229 at-bats with 36 runs, 15 home runs, 49 RBI, and 10 stolen bases, helping fantasy teams up their league standings. So far, his swing has lost value in the playoffs (10-for-41 with 10 runs, two home runs, and three RBI).
Zack Wheeler (+1,400)
In his four starts in the postseason, Wheeler has been electric despite having one win and one loss. He allowed only five runs and 13 baserunners over 25.1 innings with 25 strikeouts. However, a forearm issue after the All-Star break led to a month on the injured list, and he struggled in three of his seven starts in July and August (21 runs and seven home runs over 43 innings). Wheeler did throw the ball well over his final three appearances in the regular season (0.60 ERA over 15 innings with 15 strikeouts). His ticket to the MVP award looks to be outdueling Justin Verlander in two games.
Aaron Nola (+1,200)
Nola went 2-1 in his three starts in the playoffs with a 3.12 ERA and 18 strikeouts over 17.1 innings. He made 32 starts in the regular season with more down games than expected for an ace. Nola allowed four runs or more in 11 of his starts. Over his final 21 appearances, he gave up no runs in seven contests (48 innings) and one run in five other starts. Philadelphia needs his A-game in every matchup if they want to knock off the Astros.
Yordan Alvarez (+600)
Two of Alvarez’s seven hits in the postseason left the park, leading to eight RBI over 29 at-bats. He has a career .270 batting average in the playoffs in his 141 at-bats with 23 runs, five home runs, and 20 RBI. His best play in the regular season came in June (.418/19/9/28) and September (.355/17/6/17). Unfortunately, Alvarez battled hand issues in August, leading to an empty month (.234/11/1/10). When on his game, his swing offers impact upside while also having an excellent approach at the plate.
Kyle Tucker (+900)
Tucker finished 2022 as one of the best-balanced players in baseball (30 home runs and 25 RBI). His only shortfall came in runs (71) due to the Astros refusing to hit him in a favorable part of the batting order. His bat was not a factor in Houston’s first two series in the postseason (6-for-28 with two runs, one home run, one RBI, and one steal). I expect him to be much better in the World Series. Over 150 at-bats in his career in the playoffs, Tucker hit .267 with 21 runs, six home runs, 22 RBI, and seven stolen bases.
Jose Altuve (+1,100)
There hasn’t been an Altuve sighting in the postseason (3-for-32 with three runs, no home runs, and no RBI). His bat has been helpful in his career in the playoffs (.268/73/23/49/7 over 354 at-bats). He hit .328 over his final 296 at-bats in 2022 with 64 runs, 13 home runs, 31 RBI, and 13 stolen bases. Altuve would love to shine in this World Series to help distance himself from the Astros’ previous turmoil with steal signs.
Alex Bregman (+1,100)
Bregman played well in the Astros first two matchups, leading to 10 hits over 30 at-bats with three runs, two home runs, and seven RBI. He has yet to play well in the World Series (15-for-80 with 10 runs, five home runs, and 15 RBI). Bregman had his best push in the regular season in August (.362/27/7/22), but he hit under .250 in four other months (.233, .221, .242, and .222) despite still having one of the best approaches in baseball (87 walks and 77 strikeouts).
Justin Verlander (+900)
In the regular season, Verlander led the American League in wins (18) over his 28 starts while posting the best ERA (1.75 over 175 innings) since Pedro Martinez in 2000 (1.74). Batters on hit .186 against Verlander, which wasn’t as good as in 2019 (.172). He struggled in his first start in the postseason (six runs and 11 baserunners over four innings), followed by a dominating performance (one run over six innings with 11 strikeouts). Verlander has a 15-11 record in the postseason with a 3.55 ERA and 219 strikeouts over 197.2 innings. His one black mark on his career resume is his record in the World Series (0-6 with a 5.68 ERA and nine home runs allowed over 38 innings).
Best Bet: Yordan Alvarez (+600)
Best Value: Zack Wheeler (+1,400)
Long Shot: Bryson Stott (+10,000)
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