Justin Verlander and the Astros are favored against the Yankees for Game 1 of the ALCS.
The Yankees defeated the Guardians in Game 5 of the ALDS on Tuesday afternoon to set up an ALCS clash with a familiar foe in the Astros. Unlike the NLCS, the ALCS features the two top seeds and this series sets up to be a fun one.
The Yankees are starting Jameson Taillon (14-5, 3.91 ERA) and will need to rely on a tired bullpen after having to gut out all five games - including a rain delay - which delayed the ALDS champagne until Tuesday night. This is Taillon’s first start of this postseason though he took the loss in Game 2 in a relief apperance.
The likely AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) starts for the Astros, who completed their sweep of the Mariners last Saturday. All pitchers and hitters for the Astros will be rested and ready to go.
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Yankees-Astros ALCS Game 1 Odds
- Moneyline: Yankees (+165) | Astros (-200)
- Run line: Yankees+1.5 (-133)| Astros -1.5 (+110)
- Total: 7 - Over (+100) | Under (-118)
- Oct. 19, 2022 | 7:37 p.m. ET | TBS
Now, of course, nothing in the postseason is 100% predictable. Despite his incredible regular-season run, Verlander had a shaky outing versus the Mariners in Game 1 of the ALDS, allowing six earned runs and only lasting five innings.
I’ll still take Verlander over Taillon, who has an expected slugging in the bottom 17% and a barrel rate in the bottom 31% of the league according to Statcast. Yordan Alvarez, who has an OPS of 1.086, two home runs and seven RBIs in three postseason games should be able to square up on Taillon. Astros hitters are slugging .613 vs Taillon with only a 15% walk rate. Add that up with a tired bullpen and that Yankees hitters are batting only .161 versus Verlander with a 30% strikeout rate, and I’ll take the home team on the run line for the value.
Look for the veteran pitcher to bounce back Wednesday night and the Astros’ bats to be productive at home.
BET: Astros -1.5 (+110)
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