After the “Summer of Analytics”, advanced statistics were the topic of many discussions. Many of which simply spoke of their usage, whether they were a nuisance or a means to truly evaluate a player, team, or game. Although a part of hockey for years, the greater traction has come from front offices (Edmonton, New Jersey, and Toronto), hiring analytic experts—forcing many to delve deeper in these analytical algorithms that have been providing a unique look at National Hockey League players and teams.
Advanced statistics are becoming official numbers by the NHL.
According to NHL’s Chief Operating Officer, John Collins, the league will create a database of “enhanced stats” for their collection of statistics.
TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported the database is due February 20, 2015.
While the league will wait to standardize the player-tracking system temporarily implemented for the NHL All-Star Game (which will quantify puck possession statistics in the most accurate way yet), they will be adding an completely new layer of depth to their player and team statistics—“You’re going to see a big change in the way we present our stats, in terms of the depth and the utility of how to do it. And that’s before the puck-tracking system,” says Collins.
Until the puck-tracking software is implemented, advanced statistics will be based off of the current game sheets collected by the NHL.
The speculation of the NHL preparing to launch their own analytics website began last summer, when the terms of service agreement on NHL.com was changed—banning “unauthorized spidering, scraping or harvesting of content” from their website.
The NHL was finally convinced that there is a legitimate consumer base for these analytics. By studying prominent statistic sites that had used NHL game sheets to compute data, the league recognized the potential of their own database. In fact, some of the founders of the advanced statistic websites are recent hires of the NHL. Although the league has hired some members from those hockey analytic sites, there will still be competing analytics websites remaining. But the NHL’s will be the “official” advanced statistics—based on the information the league collects from each and every game.
35 metrics will be recorded officially by the NHL. Corsi and Fenwick, the two more well-known advanced statistics will be included in the official records by the NHL. Corsi is a tally of all shot attempts while a player is on the ice. These attempts include goal and saves, along with both missed shots and blocked shots. Fenwick is also a count of shot attempts while a player is on the ice—goals, saves, and missed shots are totaled for this stat (Fenwick is essentially Corsi subtracting blocked shots).
Other statistics include average shot distance, goals, and assists per 20 minutes and 60 minutes, and penalties both drawn and taken per 20 minutes and 60 minutes. Zone starts, a statistic that names what percentage of a player’s shifts begin and end in each zone. Another stat is PDO, which is a combination of shooting and save percentage while playing at even strength.
Although these statistics are useful, play cannot be solely based on analytics. The interpretation of the statistics is crucial to their usage.
For example, Dan Boyle—a defenseman for the New York Rangers, has a high relative Corsi of (13.8). But upon watching Boyle and his disappointing season, an educated observer can recognize the statistic does not properly reflect his play. So while analytics can be complementary, they may not accurately display a player’s true level of play. This has fueled the debate between old-school and new-school, regarding the practicality and efficiency of advanced statistics.
Conversely, advanced statistics may help exemplify a player’s true skill.
Dominic Moore, a fourth line center for the Rangers, may be one of the most underrated players in the league. His defensive abilities shine through game in and game out, but may not be perceived as often since defensive play does not necessarily result in immediate scoring. So while his points may not reflect that of an a superstar, his Corsi and Corsi Rel percentage reflect his true skill as a shutdown center.
Many players’ advanced statistics are inflated due to their talented line-mates—but analytics can deduct that of the line-mates to represent a player’s actual abilities. Therefore, his enhanced statistics only reinforce how integral Dominic Moore is to his team.
Greater implications for players arise when discussing the NHL’s endorsement of advanced statistics. Prior to the commencement of the 2014-2015 season, 23 players’ contract cases were settled—many of which before their arbitration hearing date. Montreal Canadiens defenseman P.K. Subban had the most notable arbitration cases this past summer.
According to the current collective bargaining agreement, the involved parties were permitted to use a player’s overall performance, which included NHL official statistics of the player from previous seasons. In the past, advanced statistics did not fall under the category of official statistics of the NHL, so they could not be used during these hearings—regardless of how much they influence a player’s value. With the league giving validity to advanced statistics, they are officially permissible in arbitration hearings.
Along with this database, the league will be releasing an expansion to the historical statistic vault.
Currently, the league has a list of each winner of the Stanley Cup, dating back to the 1893 Montreal Amateur Athletic Association. But, player statistics can only be searched back from the 1997-1998 season, since the league never digitized the game’s full history of box scores. After countless hours of entering hand-written box scores dating back as far as the early 20th century, the league will soon release a historical database. Although some of the older box scores are more basic, fans will be able sort and filter the information to determine specifics—such as who are all of the players that scored goals off of Wayne Gretzky’s 1,963 assists.
The National Hockey League recognized the new standard—which is a digital record of on-ice activity.
“We need to create a digital record of what happens on the ice. That’s standard across the league, and goes much deeper than the current real-time scoring system,” John Collins stated.
And the league will exemplify this by creating a database of advanced statistics for every game, tracing back to the 2010-11 season. The NHL’s official endorsement of enhanced statistics gives analytics context and an undeniable validity.