Note: Story updated after Novak Djokovic's straight-sets win over David Goffin Thursday.
Who is going to finish the year No. 1? More than half-way through the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, we’re not much closer to an answer.
Neither Andy Murray nor Novak Djokovic is giving each other an inch in the battle to finish No. 1 in the year-end Emirates ATP Rankings. Both remain undefeated in round-robin play, with Djokovic already booking his spot in the semi-finals after a perfect 3-0 record over the first five days. Having played one more match than Murray, Djokovic is effectively 70 points ahead of the Scot. But if Murray picks up 200 points by winning his final round-robin match Friday against Stan Wawrinka to also move to 3-0, he will enter the semi-finals with a 130-point lead in the battle for No. 1.
On paper, Murray came into the tournament 405 points ahead of Djokovic, but the Scot will see the 275 points he earned in the 2015 Davis Cup final fall from his points total on 28 November, the day the year-end rankings are calculated. So, that effectively gave Murray a 130-point lead coming into the finale.
Murray needs to win one set against Wawrinka Friday to be guaranteed a semi-final berth. Should he lose in straight sets to Wawrinka and (based on possible results in the group match between Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic) fail to reach the semi-finals, Djokovic would end the year No. 1.
Should Murray join Djokovic in the semi-finals, here are the key scenarios…
- If Murray and Djokovic meet in SFs, the winner of that match will clinch No. 1
- If they don’t meet in SFs, the player advancing farthest in the tournament will clinch No. 1
- If they both lose in the semi-finals, Murray will clinch No. 1 unless Djokovic has a better round-robin record
Murray is looking to become the 17th man in history (since 1973) to finish as the year-end No. 1. Djokovic is looking to finish No. 1 for the third consecutive year, and for the fifth time overall.
Murray became World No. 1 for the first time in his career on 7 November. The last time a No. 2 dethroned the incumbent No. 1 at the season finale to claim the year-end No. 1 title was back in 2001, when Australia’s Lleyton Hewitt overtook Brazilian Gustavo Kuerten in Sydney. Never in history has the final at the season finale determined the year-end No. 1.
For each group-stage match win at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, players earn 200 points. A semi-final win means an additional 400 points and a win in the final brings a further 500 points.