Under Pressure, Where Do Nadal, The Top 10 Serve?

When the walls come crumbling down, serve wide.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the first serve locations of the Top 10 players in the Emirates ATP Rankings shows that these elite players served wide more than down the T or at the body. Serving wide also gave the players' the highest win percentage of all three locations. The data set is from 2017 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events, as well as the recently completed Nitto ATP Finals in London.

Serving wide delivers a higher first serve percentage than down the T, as you aim at a larger target area, although there is an immediate downside – many more aces are struck down the T. First serves at the body offer a big target area in the middle of the service box to land the powerful first serve, but ultimately a higher percentage are returned, blunting the potency. At last month's Nitto ATP Finals, 111 aces hit were hit down the T in both service boxes, with 69 hit out wide.

2017 Top 10 First Serve Location at 30/40: Made & Won

• Wide = 46% / 72% won

• Body = 14% / 52% won

• T = 40% / 60% won

World No. 1 Rafael Nadal was one of five players who served wide more than down the T at 30/40. Interestingly, Nadal also hit the highest amount of body serves of any Top 10 player, but it returned a losing percentage for the Spaniard, as he won only four of 11 points.

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Roger Federer went down the T more, winning eight of 10 points at 30/40, but actually never lost a point serving wide at this important point score, winning all six first serve points.

The 2017 Nitto ATP Finals champion Grigor Dimitrov served wide more than twice as much than down the T (17 to 8), with only one first serve at the body, which he lost.

German Alexander Zverev took the short way home, serving 19 first serves down the T, but won only about half (10). When he did go wide, which was nine times, he won seven.

In the bottom half of the Top 10, Dominic Thiem, Jack Sock and Pablo Carreno Busta all elected to go wide more than down the T at 30/40 with their first serve, while David Goffin and Marin Cilic narrowly preferred the T location. Stan Wawrinka, who played a limited season due to a knee injury, was even with five first serves wide and also down the T.

There is no reason that amateur players can’t copy these professional patterns and improve their own serve performance in 2018 under the intense pressure of 30/40.

2017 Top 10: 1st Serves Made & Won - Wide / Body / T
(Bold = Preferred Location Made)