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UPDATED 11:56 PM EST | MAR 5, 2017
2016-17 NBA Predictions
Based on “CARM-Elo,” a mix of team Elo ratings and our CARMELO player projections. Updated after every game.
More NBA: CARMELO projections | Every team’s Elo history
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Games on Mar. 6, 2017
Win probabilityPoint spread
Away team
MIAMILNYCHIGSBKNINDPORHOUNOSACBOSXX
Pre-game win probabilities
28%47%40%38%78%8%32%30%27%17%17%34%–
72%53%60%62%22%92%68%70%73%83%83%66%–
Home team
CLEPHIORLDETATLMEMCHAMINSAUTADENLACXX
Team-by-team forecastForecast from
AVG. SIMULATED SEASONPLAYOFF CHANCES
ELOCARM-ELO1-WEEK CHANGETEAMCONFERENCERECORDPOINT DIFF/GMAKE PLAYOFFSTOP SEEDWIN TITLE
17591789
-19
GSWarriors51-11West67-15+11.782%52%
17151709
+6
SASpurs48-13West63-19+8.118%20%
16331635
+7
HOURockets44-19West56-26+6.4>99%99%71%6%
15861590
-19
BOSCeltics40-23East52-30+3.0>99%26%4%
15951585
+10
WSHWizards37-24East49-33+2.1>99%2%3%
15671575
-9
MEMGrizzlies36-27West48-34+1.6>99%99%99%99%1%2%
15511530
+10
MIAHeat29-34East40-42+0.650%<1%<1%
15151527
+50
MINTimberwolves25-37West34-48-0.47%—99%<1%<1%
14951497
-23
CHIBulls31-31East41-41-0.377%<1%<1%
15051497
+22
DENNuggets28-34West38-44-0.552%—<1%
15031490
+25
INDPacers32-30East42-40-0.780%<1%<1%
14861486
+21
DALMavericks26-36West36-46-1.512%—<1%
14841484
+3
PORTrail Blazers26-35West36-46-1.826%—<1%
14821483
+9
CHAHornets27-35East37-45+0.321%<1%<1%
14911482
+15
DETPistons30-32East40-42-0.257%<1%<1%
14841466
+19
ATLHawks34-28East43-39-0.993%<1%<1%
14701463
+2
MILBucks28-33East37-45-0.521%<1%<1%
14261431
+21
NOPelicans25-38West32-50-3.51%—<1%
14121413
-41
SACKings25-37West32-50-3.41%—<1%
14051412
+4
NYKnicks25-38East32-50-3.2<1%<1%<1%
14011403
+30
PHXSuns21-42West29-53-4.5<1%—<1%
13701387
-30
PHI76ers23-39East30-52-5.6<1%<1%<1%
13841384
-2
ORLMagic23-40East30-52-5.4<1%<1%<1%
13301338
-27
LALLakers19-44West25-57-6.9<1%—<1%
12651263
+17
BKNNets10-51East15-67-8.8<1%—<1%
How this works: This forecast is based on 50,000 simulations of the season and accounts for team fatigue, travel distance to games, and home courts with higher altitudes. Elo ratings are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent, while our CARMELO projections estimate a player’s future performance based on the trajectory of other, similar NBA players. Our CARM-Elo ratings, which power the forecast model, blend these two metrics to measure a team's quality based on both its game results and its roster. Full methodology »
By Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Nate Silver. Additional contributions from Neil Paine and Will Strimling. Illustration by Elias Stein.
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