Sports – FiveThirtyEight — CARMELO RSS



Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA

At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our “CARM-Elo” season prediction model. We tested and tweaked the prediction model over the years, but it was always powered by metrics from other sources, such as Box Plus/Minus […]

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Our Way-Too-Early Projections For The 2019-20 NBA Season

The NBA, it is often said, has no offseason anymore — and so, we are determined to keep pace. That’s why we have already reloaded the FiveThirtyEight NBA prediction model to include updated projections and probabilities for the 2019-20 season, three months before the regular season actually tips off. Because the NBA never stops. What’s […]

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2019-20 NBA Predictions

How this works: These forecasts are based on 50,000 simulations of the rest of the season. Elo ratings — which power the pure Elo forecast — are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. Our CARMELO forecast doesn’t account for wins and losses; it is based […]

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CARMELO NBA Player Projections

FiveThirtyEight UPDATED JUL. 1, 2019 AT 2:00 PM CARMELO NBA Player Projections FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like. More NBA:Every team’s Elo historyAbout our 2018-19 player projections How good will LeBron James (Cavaliers) be? Random […]

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The Top 50 NBA Draft Prospects, According To Our CARMELO Projections

The NBA doesn’t waste much time before moving on. The 2018-19 season has been over for less than a week, and the Toronto Raptors are still picking up the debris from their jubilant championship parade. And yet, Thursday’s NBA draft will mark the de facto beginning to the 2019-20 season. So we at FiveThirtyEight are […]

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