Sports – FiveThirtyEight — 2016 NCAA Basketball Tournament RSS



How A Data Scientist Who’d Never Heard Of Basketball Mastered March Madness

A 13-year-old in Illinois. A 47-year-old English woman. A 70-year-old Vegas oddsmaker. At first blush, there isn’t much linking them. But last year, all three were among the most successful March Madness prognosticators. That’s where the similarities end. With methods ranging from gut instinct to computational learning theory, these three characters demonstrate just how wide […]

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The Dome Effect Isn’t Real; The NRG Effect Is Complicated

Twenty years ago this week, Kentucky beat Syracuse in the men’s NCAA Tournament title game in front of a crowd of 19,229 at Continental Airlines Arena in New Jersey. It was the last time the Final Four was held in a basketball arena. From 1997 through 2008, the Final Four was played in domed stadiums […]

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The Dome Effect Isn’t Real; The NRG Effect Is Complicated

Twenty years ago this week, Kentucky beat Syracuse in the men’s NCAA Tournament title game in front of a crowd of 19,229 at Continental Airlines Arena in New Jersey. It was the last time the Final Four was held in a basketball arena. From 1997 through 2008, the Final Four was played in domed stadiums […]

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Villanova Had The Most Impressive Tournament Win In More Than 53 Years

Ahead of Saturday’s Final Four matchup between Villanova and Oklahoma, our prediction model had the Wildcats only slightly favored, with a 54 percent chance of winning, and nearly a quarter of the game was as tight as that probability suggests. When Oklahoma led 17-16 after eight minutes, our in-game win probabilities listed the odds as […]

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