March Madness is always rough on favorites. In your typical men’s college basketball season, the statistical favorite goes into the NCAA tourney with only about a 20 percent to 25 percent probability of winning the championship. In other words, even the “best” team is three or four times more likely to lose early than it […]
March Madness is always rough on favorites. In your typical men’s college basketball season, the statistical favorite goes into the NCAA tourney with only about a 20 percent to 25 percent probability of winning the championship. In other words, even the “best” team is three or four times more likely to lose early than it […]
Perfect brackets: They’re rather hard. You know this. Before we get into the whole “you have a one-in-who-gives-a-craptillion chance of winning” part of the story, though, let’s talk about why it’s so hard to grasp big numbers like this. Generally speaking, without a way to anchor a number to an everyday concept, people tend to […]
