Sports – FiveThirtyEight — Bayesian Thinking RSS



Skeptical Football: Go Go Andrew Luck And A Must-Win For The Pats

From a statistical standpoint, we know very little about football. Forty-six players on each team suit up per game, and most of them materially affect outcomes — yet, for most of them, only a handful of stats are recorded. The stats we do have are hopelessly entangled, as each player’s performance affects virtually every other’s. […]

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Skeptical Football: Go Go Andrew Luck And A Must-Win For The Pats

From a statistical standpoint, we know very little about football. Forty-six players on each team suit up per game, and most of them materially affect outcomes — yet, for most of them, only a handful of stats are recorded. The stats we do have are hopelessly entangled, as each player’s performance affects virtually every other’s. […]

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How Do You Solve a Problem Like the Marlins?

Sometimes, early in the season, a team will jump out to a division lead despite preseason predictions calling for it to finish in last place. In many of those cases, sabermetrics will poke holes in the team’s record — perhaps its run differential lags far behind its win-loss tally, maybe it’s had an easy schedule, […]

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How Do You Solve a Problem Like the Marlins?

Sometimes, early in the season, a team will jump out to a division lead despite preseason predictions calling for it to finish in last place. In many of those cases, sabermetrics will poke holes in the team’s record — perhaps its run differential lags far behind its win-loss tally, maybe it’s had an easy schedule, […]

Continue reading