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It’s a Huge Upset When All the World Cup Favorites Win

Warren Buffett has a great investment track record. So perhaps it’s no accident that he declined to offer $1 billion for correctly predicting the outcome of all World Cup knockout stage games, as he did for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament games. The odds of winning Buffett’s NCAA challenge were about one in 7.4 billion, assuming […]

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It’s a Huge Upset When All the World Cup Favorites Win

Warren Buffett has a great investment track record. So perhaps it’s no accident that he declined to offer $1 billion for correctly predicting the outcome of all World Cup knockout stage games, as he did for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament games. The odds of winning Buffett’s NCAA challenge were about one in 7.4 billion, assuming […]

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A Chart For Predicting Penalty-Shootout Odds in Real Time

If you’ve come here during a penalty shootout, scroll down for some cool charts. The next several paragraphs explain our methodology in some detail. FiveThirtyEight has some credibility staked on the performance of the Brazilian national team. It was our pretournament favorite to win the World Cup. (Many other forecasts had Brazil favored, but not […]

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A Chart For Predicting Penalty-Shootout Odds in Real Time

If you’ve come here during a penalty shootout, scroll down for some cool charts. The next several paragraphs explain our methodology in some detail. FiveThirtyEight has some credibility staked on the performance of the Brazilian national team. It was our pretournament favorite to win the World Cup. (Many other forecasts had Brazil favored, but not […]

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World Cup Crib Notes: Day 16

The World Cup’s knockout stage begins Saturday, with both matchups pitting South American teams against each other. Lose and they’re gone. Brazil vs. Chile 12 p.m. EDT Colombia vs. Uruguay 4 p.m. EDT IN BRIEF See our World Cup predictions for the latest probabilities. IN DEPTH Uruguay must face Colombia without striker Luis Suárez, who has been […]

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