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Oct 10, 2019

Introducing RAPTOR, Our New Metric For The Modern NBA

At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our “CARM-Elo” season prediction model. We tested and tweaked the prediction model over the years, but it was always powered by metrics from other sources, such as Box Plus/Minus […]

Aug 14, 2018

What Our Early NBA Projections Can Tell Us About Next Season

When last we left the NBA, the Golden State Warriors were wrapping up their third championship in four years and staking their claim as perhaps the game’s greatest dynasty. Then a bunch of players switched teams, including LeBron James (to the Lakers), Kawhi Leonard (to the Raptors), FiveThirtyEight stat-namesake Carmelo Anthony (to the Rockets) and […]