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Suddenly, Anyone Can Beat Rafael Nadal on Clay

In our sports coverage at FiveThirtyEight, we’ve referred several times to regression to the mean. It’s an unromantic truth about outstanding sports performances: They’re usually the product of skill and determination, but also a healthy dose of luck. We might expect the outstanding play to continue because of skill and determination, but the luck is just as likely to turn […]

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Suddenly, Anyone Can Beat Rafael Nadal on Clay

In our sports coverage at FiveThirtyEight, we’ve referred several times to regression to the mean. It’s an unromantic truth about outstanding sports performances: They’re usually the product of skill and determination, but also a healthy dose of luck. We might expect the outstanding play to continue because of skill and determination, but the luck is just as likely to turn […]

Continue reading