A year ago, it seemed like the NCAA Tournament’s era of parity was under attack. Kentucky had just wrapped up an undefeated regular season and was looking so powerful that the FiveThirtyEight model assigned the Wildcats a 41 percent probability of winning the tourney before it even began. (By comparison, most pre-tournament favorites of recent […]
A year ago, it seemed like the NCAA Tournament’s era of parity was under attack. Kentucky had just wrapped up an undefeated regular season and was looking so powerful that the FiveThirtyEight model assigned the Wildcats a 41 percent probability of winning the tourney before it even began. (By comparison, most pre-tournament favorites of recent […]
UPDATE (6:30 p.m. March 18): We’ve updated this post to add information about the excitement index. Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts of the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments. We’ve been issuing probabilistic March Madness forecasts in some form since 2011, when FiveThirtyEight was just a couple of us writing for The New York Times. While […]
UPDATE (6:30 p.m. March 18): We’ve updated this post to add information about the excitement index. Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s forecasts of the men’s and women’s NCAA basketball tournaments. We’ve been issuing probabilistic March Madness forecasts in some form since 2011, when FiveThirtyEight was just a couple of us writing for The New York Times. While […]
Welcome to the latest episode of Hot Takedown, FiveThirtyEight’s sports podcast. This week’s show (March 11, 2016) was recorded in front of a live audience at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Neil Paine donned his Stat Man cape once again to lead a lesson about whether box score statistics in the NBA are outdated. […]
