CARMELO NBA Player Projections
FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO* identifies similar players throughout NBA history and uses them to develop a probabilistic forecast of what a current NBA player’s future might look like.
How good willbe?RANDOM PLAYERCarmelo Anthony
- NEW YORK KNICKS
- SMALL FORWARD
- 32 YEARS OLD
WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF PAST THREE SEASONSBADAVG.GOOD
| PERCENTILE | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| VITALS | 50TH | ||
| Height | 6’8″ | ||
| Weight | 230 | ||
| Draft position | 3 | ||
| SCORING | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| True shooting % | 53% | ||
| Free throw % | 82% | ||
| Usage % | 31% | ||
| TENDENCIES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 pt. frequency | 24% | ||
| FT frequency | 31% | ||
| PASSING/BALL HANDLING | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Assist % | 20% | ||
| Turnover % | 10% | ||
| DEFENSE/REBOUNDING | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Rebound % | 12% | ||
| Block % | 1.1% | ||
| Steal % | 1.4% | ||
| Defensive +/- | -0.8 | ||
WINS ABOVE REPLACEMENT PROJECTION
CONFIDENCE INTERVAL
PROJECTION
CATEGORY:GOOD STARTER5-YR MARKET VALUE:$75.5m’132014’15’16’17’18’19’20’21’22’23’24051015209.22.76.44.93.92.41.70.50.20.19.22.76.44.93.92.41.70.50.20.1PERFORMANCE OF THE 10 MOST COMPARABLE PLAYERS01020251Vince CarterYEAR: 2010SIMILARITY: 5401020252D. WilkinsYEAR: 1993SIMILARITY: 5201020253Tom ChambersYEAR: 1992SIMILARITY: 4801020254Kobe BryantYEAR: 2011SIMILARITY: 4701020255Clyde DrexlerYEAR: 1995SIMILARITY: 4701020256Alex EnglishYEAR: 1987SIMILARITY: 4601020257Chris WebberYEAR: 2006SIMILARITY: 4501020258Dirk NowitzkiYEAR: 2011SIMILARITY: 4401020259James WorthyYEAR: 1994SIMILARITY: 43010202510Antawn JamisonYEAR: 2009SIMILARITY: 41
| THE FINE PRINT | 2014 | ’15 | ’16 | ’17 | ’18 | ’19 | ’20 | ’21 | ’22 | ’23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Offensive +/- | +4.6 | +3.6 | +2.8 | +2.6 | +2.0 | +1.6 | +1.5 | +0.7 | +0.1 | -0.3 |
| Defensive +/- | -1.0 | -2.2 | -0.2 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.0 | -1.0 |
| Total +/- | +3.6 | +1.4 | +2.6 | +1.8 | +1.4 | +0.9 | +0.9 | -0.1 | -0.9 | -1.2 |
| Value | $29.8m | $9.3m | $24.8m | $25.4m | $22.0m | $14.3m | $10.4m | $3.4m | $1.4m | $0.9m |
| Minutes played | 2982 | 1428 | 2530 | 2331 | 2072 | 1495 | 1088 | 519 | 345 | 323 |
*FiveThirtyEight’s Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player’s future performance. The similarity score is an index measuring how comparable one player is to another, scaled such that a score of zero is average similarity and 100 is the highest possible degree of similarity. Plus-minus is derived from Box Plus/Minus, a measure of the number of points per 100 possessions that a player contributed to his team, relative to an average NBA player. All player ages are as of Feb. 1, 2017. Minutes played is prorated to 82 games.
Additional contributions from Aaron Bycoffe and Neil Paine.
Sources: Basketball-Reference.com, ESPN and Jeremias Engelmann.
