How Good Are FiveThirtyEight Forecasts?

Forecasts have always been a core part of FiveThirtyEight’s mission. They force us (and you) to think about the world probabilistically, rather than in absolutes. And making predictions — modeling a candidate’s chance of being elected or a team’s odds of making the playoffs — improves our understanding of the world by testing our knowledge of how it works — what makes a team or a candidate win.