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Northam Heads Into Virginia Governor’s Race With A Small Lead

The first major statewide elections since President Trump was inaugurated take place on Tuesday. The governor’s race in New Jersey looks like it will be a blowout. But Virginia’s governor’s race is more interesting: Former Republican National Committee Chairman and 2014 U.S. Senate candidate Ed Gillespie faces off against Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam. And […]

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What Will Virginia And New Jersey Tell Us About Trump?

No offense to the 8.4 million people who live there, but I really don’t care who the governor of Virginia is. I don’t care much about New Jersey’s either. I do care a lot about national politics, however, so I’m interested in what next Tuesday’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey will tell us […]

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Politics Podcast: Could A Democrat Actually Win In Alabama?

The highest-profile 2017 elections are not far off. The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast team takes stock of the candidates, polling and strategies in the Virginia governor’s race and the Alabama special Senate election. In Virginia, Democrat Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam is a modest favorite over Republican Ed Gillespie. In Alabama, controversial former judge Roy Moore, a […]

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The Virginia Governor’s Race Is Not A Good Political Barometer

Virginia is about to elect a new governor, and some Democratic operatives are worried. Worried that the public polls that over the past month have given Democrat Ralph Northam an average lead of 7 percentage points over Republican Ed Gillespie are off. Worried about a relative lack of small-dollar and outside donations to Northam. Worried, […]

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Why Is The Most Vulnerable GOP Senator Not Dean Heller?

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song: End credits from “The Simpsons” (Renaissance version) Poll of the week Jeff Flake is still in big trouble. The latest survey from Democratic pollster GBA Strategies gives Kelli Ward (Flake’s opponent in Arizona’s GOP Senate primary) a 58 percent to 31 percent advantage over Flake. […]

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