In preparation for the 2015 NFL season, FiveThirtyEight is running a series of eight division previews, each highlighting the numbers that may influence a team’s performance (including projections and rankings based on ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index). Today we focus on the AFC North, where Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have all taken the division title […]
In preparation for the 2015 NFL season, FiveThirtyEight is running a series of eight division previews, each highlighting the numbers that may influence a team’s performance (including projections and rankings based on ESPN’s preseason Football Power Index). Today we focus on the AFC North, where Baltimore, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have all taken the division title […]
On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots, who had entered Week 13 ranked first in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings. They got there by defeating the previous No. 1, the Denver Broncos, in Week 9. But unlike the Patriots, the Packers didn’t move into the No. 1 position. Instead, Green Bay ranks […]
On Sunday, the Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots, who had entered Week 13 ranked first in FiveThirtyEight’s NFL Elo ratings. They got there by defeating the previous No. 1, the Denver Broncos, in Week 9. But unlike the Patriots, the Packers didn’t move into the No. 1 position. Instead, Green Bay ranks […]
Before Thursday night’s game between the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns, our Elo ratings predicted a 77 percent probability of a Bengals win. Cincinnati had the higher Elo rating before the game, 1568 to 1420, and it was playing at home, both of which fed a pregame point spread of -8.5 points in the Bengals’ […]
