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Why The Nunes Memo Probably Won’t Do What Trump Wants It To

Public opinion on the Russia investigation has been pretty stable all year — Republicans are skeptical but Americans overall support it. It’s hard, therefore, to see the much-hyped “Nunes memo,” which Trump declassified and congressional Republicans then made public on Friday, changing all that much. Trump has reportedly told friends he thinks the document — […]

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Texas Dislikes Trump, But That Doesn’t Mean It Will Go Blue In 2018

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Today’s theme song is “Everywhere You Look” from the television show “Full House.” Poll of the week Gallup this week released 2017 job approval ratings for President Trump in all 50 states. There’s a lot of interesting stuff in there. But one data point seemed to catch people’s […]

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What Happened To The Democratic Wave?

Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. micah (Micah Cohen, politics editor): For your consideration today: Whatever happened to that Democratic wave? The Democratic advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot is down to less than 6 percentage points: What’s going on? Is it time for Democrats to […]

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Five Blue States Could Determine Who Controls The House In 2018

New Jersey Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen’s retirement announcement this week wasn’t a game changer in the battle for control of the House of Representatives. Even before his announcement, Frelinghuysen, a Republican, was in danger of losing a re-election bid in the 11th Congressional District, which President Trump won by a mere 1 percentage point in 2016. […]

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Not Much From A State Of The Union Usually Becomes Law

President Trump on Tuesday gave the first State of the Union address of his presidency, calling for new legislation in policy areas including immigration, infrastructure, prescription drugs and military spending. But how many of those proposals can we expect to see enacted? The State of the Union has historically been a chance for the president […]

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