Sports – FiveThirtyEight — March Madness RSS



John Calipari Has Seen a Lot of Bricks at the Free-Throw Line

Before the NCAA men’s basketball championship game, I pointed out that Connecticut was unusually accurate from the free-throw line this season, ranking fifth of 351 teams in Division I. Then the Huskies did even better, hitting 10 of 10 free throws to help them defeat Kentucky 60-54 on Monday to win the national title — and […]

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UConn’s Not-So-Secret Weapon

FiveThirtyEight’s model calls Monday night’s NCAA men’s basketball championship game between Kentucky and Connecticut a tossup. If it’s as close as each team’s win probabilities are, the game will probably come down to free throws. If it does, advantage, UConn. The Huskies have hit 77.4 percent of their free throws this season, good for fifth out of […]

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UConn’s Not-So-Secret Weapon

FiveThirtyEight’s model calls Monday night’s NCAA men’s basketball championship game between Kentucky and Connecticut a tossup. If it’s as close as each team’s win probabilities are, the game will probably come down to free throws. If it does, advantage, UConn. The Huskies have hit 77.4 percent of their free throws this season, good for fifth out of […]

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Kentucky Injury Makes NCAA Basketball Championship a True Toss-Up

I have a longstanding grievance with the term “toss-up.” It implies an outcome that resembles the toss of a fair coin, one whose prospects are about 50-50. But in political contexts, the term is sometimes applied far too liberally. Any reasonably competitive race is a “toss-up.” On the eve of the 2012 presidential election, for example, […]

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Kentucky Injury Makes NCAA Basketball Championship a True Toss-Up

I have a longstanding grievance with the term “toss-up.” It implies an outcome that resembles the toss of a fair coin, one whose prospects are about 50-50. But in political contexts, the term is sometimes applied far too liberally. Any reasonably competitive race is a “toss-up.” On the eve of the 2012 presidential election, for example, […]

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