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The NCAA Bracket: Checking Our Work

Our NCAA tournament forecasts are probabilistic. You could say that FiveThirtyEight is “calling” for Michigan State to defeat Virginia on Friday, but it isn’t much of a call. Our model gives Michigan State a 50.7 percent chance of winning, and Virginia a 49.3 percent chance. For all intents and purposes, it’s a toss-up. Other times, […]

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The NCAA Bracket: Checking Our Work

Our NCAA tournament forecasts are probabilistic. You could say that FiveThirtyEight is “calling” for Michigan State to defeat Virginia on Friday, but it isn’t much of a call. Our model gives Michigan State a 50.7 percent chance of winning, and Virginia a 49.3 percent chance. For all intents and purposes, it’s a toss-up. Other times, […]

Continue reading