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There’s A 10 Percent Chance Of A Three-Way MLB Wild-Card Tie

After all three teams lost Wednesday, the New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants remain locked in a three-way tie for the National League’s two wild-card slots. Our prediction model, which is based on a simulation that uses each team’s Elo rating, gives New York a 75 percent chance of grabbing at […]

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A FiveThirtyEight Debate: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

Why should politics get to have all the fun with chats? In preparation for the World Series, which starts Tuesday, we summoned the biggest baseball obsessives on FiveThirtyEight’s staff to Slack to talk about the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. As usual, the transcript below has been lightly edited. neil_paine (Neil Paine, senior […]

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A FiveThirtyEight Debate: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

Why should politics get to have all the fun with chats? In preparation for the World Series, which starts Tuesday, we summoned the biggest baseball obsessives on FiveThirtyEight’s staff to Slack to talk about the New York Mets and Kansas City Royals. As usual, the transcript below has been lightly edited. neil_paine (Neil Paine, senior […]

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A Run Like Daniel Murphy’s Should Happen Once Every Two Years

The Mets are going to the World Series, and second baseman Daniel Murphy has almost single-handedly propelled them there. Murphy alone has scored more than 25 percent of New York’s runs so far this postseason. His seven playoff dingers, accumulated in only nine games, are tied for second all-time in a single postseason — and […]

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A Run Like Daniel Murphy’s Should Happen Once Every Two Years

The Mets are going to the World Series, and second baseman Daniel Murphy has almost single-handedly propelled them there. Murphy alone has scored more than 25 percent of New York’s runs so far this postseason. His seven playoff dingers, accumulated in only nine games, are tied for second all-time in a single postseason — and […]

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