Our NCAA tournament forecasts are probabilistic. You could say that FiveThirtyEight is “calling” for Michigan State to defeat Virginia on Friday, but it isn’t much of a call. Our model gives Michigan State a 50.7 percent chance of winning, and Virginia a 49.3 percent chance. For all intents and purposes, it’s a toss-up. Other times, […]
Our NCAA tournament forecasts are probabilistic. You could say that FiveThirtyEight is “calling” for Michigan State to defeat Virginia on Friday, but it isn’t much of a call. Our model gives Michigan State a 50.7 percent chance of winning, and Virginia a 49.3 percent chance. For all intents and purposes, it’s a toss-up. Other times, […]
So, how is your bracket after the first weekend of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament? Did you pick Mercer to win in the round of 64? Most didn’t, of course, including President Obama and anyone who based picks off the favorites in the FiveThirtyEight bracket. Only 3.3 percent of brackets in the ESPN Bracket Challenge […]
So, how is your bracket after the first weekend of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament? Did you pick Mercer to win in the round of 64? Most didn’t, of course, including President Obama and anyone who based picks off the favorites in the FiveThirtyEight bracket. Only 3.3 percent of brackets in the ESPN Bracket Challenge […]
On Friday, I noted that the Florida Gators had seen a decline in their chances of winning the NCAA men’s basketball tournament despite beating Albany in their opening game. What hurt the Gators’ prospects? They defeated No. 16 Albany by an underwhelming 12 points, and they drew a tough Round of 32 matchup against Pittsburgh […]
