With so much parity in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament tournament this year, one game has the potential to affect everyone else’s odds of advancing. For instance, Dayton’s upset Thursday of Ohio State gives Syracuse an easier potential opponent in the second round and raises the odds the Orange will make a deep run. The […]
With so much parity in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament tournament this year, one game has the potential to affect everyone else’s odds of advancing. For instance, Dayton’s upset Thursday of Ohio State gives Syracuse an easier potential opponent in the second round and raises the odds the Orange will make a deep run. The […]
Louisville is FiveThirtyEight’s pick to win the NCAA tournament even though it’s a No. 4 seed. That doesn’t reflect a bluegrass bias, or a weak draw, or a bug in the model (we hope). Instead, it reflects how massively underseeded the Cardinals are. According to our calculations, Louisville is the seventh-most underseeded team in the […]
Louisville is FiveThirtyEight’s pick to win the NCAA tournament even though it’s a No. 4 seed. That doesn’t reflect a bluegrass bias, or a weak draw, or a bug in the model (we hope). Instead, it reflects how massively underseeded the Cardinals are. According to our calculations, Louisville is the seventh-most underseeded team in the […]
On the surface, there isn’t much difference between FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA bracket and the consensus. Our most probable Final Four — Florida, Arizona, Michigan State and Louisville — are the same teams favored by the plurality of participants in ESPN’s Tournament Challenge. (They’re also the four teams President Obama chose for his bracket.) But there’s disagreement […]
