Up to eight players could be in contention to battle for the final two spots at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals when the regular season concludes with the BNP Paribas Masters in Paris next week.
As of Saturday night, with Ivo Karlovic and David Ferrer out of the Erste Bank Open 500 in Vienna, eight players are within mathematical reach of Marin Cilic, who holds the current minimum qualification points total of 2,890. That's down from 10 players on Friday because both Ferrer and Karlovic needed to win the Vienna title to stay in London contention.
Additionally, Cilic, who reached the Basel final on Saturday to pass Tomas Berdych, could raise the bar to a minimum 3,090 points required for qualification before Paris begins. Should the Croatian win Basel, Grigor Dimitrov would be eliminated from London contention.
The battle for the two London slots is a fluid situation. As of Saturday night, there are eight players still alive in the London hunt: Dominic Thiem, Berdych, David Goffin, Cilic, Roberto Bautista Agut, Tsonga, Lucas Pouille and Dimitrov.
Thiem, currently 315 points ahead of Cilic in the Emirates ATP Race To London, will open his Paris campaign against the winner of the first-round clash between Philipp Kohlschreiber and Jack Sock. A potential third-round meeting with Richard Gasquet awaits.
Several potential third-round matches could be critical in determining who is eliminated from contention. Seventh seed Berdych could meet No. 10 seed Bautista Agut (2,340) – who as of now must reach the final to have a London shot – while No. 13 seed Pouille (2,106) will likely need to advance past World No. 2 Andy Murray in the third round – and go on to win the title – to keep alive his hopes.
Cilic (2,890), who passed Berdych (2,880) for ninth spot in the Emirates ATP Race To London on Saturday, is on a third-round collision course with David Goffin. Cilic will square off against Karlovic or a qualifier, while Goffin plays the winner of the opening round between Nicolas Mahut and Martin Klizan. Top seed Novak Djokovic is looming as a likely quarter-final opponent in that section.
In the bottom half of the Paris draw, No. 11 seed Tsonga, who plays Andy Murray in the Vienna final on Sunday, could face a must-win third-round meeting with fifth seed Kei Nishikori.
As points stand October 29, Pouille and Dimitrov would need to win the Paris title just to have a chance.
Paris will also see Murray continue his quest to displace Djokovic as World No. 1. Should Murray go on to beat Tsonga in Sunday's Vienna final, he would overtake Djokovic if he wins Paris and the Serbian does not reach the final.