On Thursday, we rolled out our new NBA metric, named RAPTOR — the Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On-court/off-court Results — along with our new 2019-20 RAPTOR-fueled player and team forecasts, and a thorough explanation of the system from my boss, Nate Silver. But since we released an early, pre-RAPTOR version of our predictions […]
At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we then incorporated into our “CARM-Elo” season prediction model. We tested and tweaked the prediction model over the years, but it was always powered by metrics from other sources, such as Box Plus/Minus […]
If you’ve followed along with our NBA projection system in recent years, you probably noticed a recurring theme. During the regular season, the Golden State Warriors would either hit dry spells while key players were injured, or coach Steve Kerr, guarding against injuries, would frequently sit key players. Because of that, the Warriors would lose […]
Eagle-eyed FiveThirtyEight readers might have noticed something different about our NBA predictions interactive on Wednesday afternoon: We rolled out a slightly different look to the table based on a pretty significant upgrade to the way we handle NBA forecasts. We’ll have a full methodology page ready soon, but for now we wanted to highlight a […]
UPDATED SEP. 14, 2017 AT 1:50 PM 2017-18 NBA PredictionsBased on “CARM-Elo,” a mix of team Elo ratings and our CARMELO player projections. Updated after every game. More NBA: CARMELO projections Every team’s Elo history StandingsGames AVG. SIMULATED SEASON PLAYOFF CHANCES ELO CARM-ELO 1-WEEK CHANGE TEAM CONFERENCE RECORD POINT DIFF/G MAKE PLAYOFFS TOP SEED […]